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Oil rises above USD 100, gold rebounds

Oil higher after Biden’s trip disappoints

Crude prices are back where they belong, over the USD 100 a barrel level, after President Biden’s trip to the Mideast did not yield any oil commitments by the Saudis. ​ Boosting oil was also a weaker dollar that stemmed from a broad rebound for risky assets.

The oil market will remain tight as the latest earnings updates reinforced how strong the US economy remains. The short-term crude demand outlook should stabilize here as the US consumer is still spending and as airlines still see demand despite higher prices.

Gold

Gold prices are rebounding as the dollar softens alongside easing Fed rate hike expectations. ​ For a brief period, it seemed like the Fed might need to justify a 100-basis-point rate hike this month, but that risk has eased. ​ The Fed might not need to tighten policy as aggressively as markets were initially thinking, but the rate hiking cycle could last into early next year.

The dollar is weakening to start the trading week, but this might not be the top, which means gold might struggle to make a move above anywhere close to the USD 1750 level. The dollar might take a bigger cue from the ECB rate decision and if Russia delays in restart of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. ​

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Ed Moya

Ed Moya [4]

Senior Market Analyst, The Americas at OANDA
With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya is a senior market analyst with OANDA, producing up-to-the-minute intermarket analysis, coverage of geopolitical events, central bank policies and market reaction to corporate news. His particular expertise lies across a wide range of asset classes including FX, commodities, fixed income, stocks and cryptocurrencies. Over the course of his career, Ed has worked with some of the leading forex brokerages, research teams and news departments on Wall Street including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Most recently he worked with TradeTheNews.com, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news. Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Yahoo! Finance Live, Fox Business and Sky TV. His views are trusted by the world’s most renowned global newswires including Reuters, Bloomberg and the Associated Press, and he is regularly quoted in leading publications such as MSN, MarketWatch, Forbes, Breitbart, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. Ed holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University.
Ed Moya