Ending a bad month in the red

Stock markets have fallen heavily in June so it seems only fitting that they’re ending the month with big losses as reality continues to bite.

There’s no getting away from recession chat and while the heads of the Fed, ECB and BoE didn’t exactly fuel that during their panel discussion on Wednesday, they didn’t do anything to dispel it either. They all know that there’s a strong likelihood of recession this year or next and investors are increasingly accepting that fate as well.

There’s been a plethora of economic data from across Europe this morning, mostly tier two and three, and it was a bit of a mixed bag. The labour market figures, for example, remain strong with the anomaly being Germany but this was heavily distorted by the integration of Ukrainian refugees into the labour market. Underlying numbers remain in good shape even if across the bloc, employment growth is expected to slow.

It’s impossible to ignore the fact that households are being squeezed and we’re seeing that appear in the data, particularly in the UK which will probably fall into recession later this year. But it is unlikely to be alone in that which is why bear-market rallies are proving to be so short-lived.

US inflation boost but spending slips

US inflation data was unusually encouraging ahead of the open. Perhaps that’s getting a little carried away but it didn’t deliver another crushing below so maybe this feeling is actually relief rather than joy. The core reading was a little better than expected at 0.3%, in line with April, while the headline also fell a little short of expectations at 0.6%.

The income and spending data were arguably less encouraging. Earnings rose 0.5% as expected, a slight acceleration from April, while spending rose only 0.2%, a big drop from 0.9% a month earlier and half the forecast. Another sign of the squeeze taking a toll on households? The US economy is among the best positioned to fend off a recession but it’s not completely immune to the cost-of-living crisis. It may be catching up.

Bitcoin crumbling

Bitcoin has been hanging on in there around USD 20,000 but its resilience may finally be crumbling under pressure, with the cryptocurrency sliding more than 5% today to trade around USD 19,000. This could be really bad news for the crypto space and may even trigger much more severe declines in the coming weeks.

The forced liquidation of Three Arrows Capital may have contributed to the latest decline as traders are left to wonder what other leveraged firms will follow in its footsteps. The fear alone could deliver another hammer blow to crypto valuations before the dust settles.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
Craig Erlam
Craig Erlam

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