Canadian dollar eyes GDP

The Canadian dollar is trading quietly today, just above the 1.2900 level. That could change in the North American session, with the release of Canada’s GDP for April.

GDP expected to soften

Canada’s monthly GDP releases have been pointing southwards. In March, GDP slowed to 0.7, down from 0.9% prior. The April estimate stands at just 0.3%. This is a sign of concern, although there are some bright clouds on the horizon. The war in Ukraine, which has disrupted oil and grain supplies and sent commodity prices soaring, has proved to be a boon for the Canadian economy, as Canada is the world’s fourth-largest producer of both oil and wheat. The IMF is projecting that Canada will lead the G-7 nations in growth with a GDP of 3.9%.

Canada has not been immune from spiralling inflation, as headline CPI rose to 7.7% in May, its highest level since January 1983. Similar to the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada has scrambled to tighten policy in order to wrestle down inflation, which has become the central bank’s public enemy number one. There are expectations that the BoC may follow the Fed’s lead and deliver a super-size 0.75% rate hike at its July 12th meeting. Inflationary pressures are broad-based across the economy, which raises the risk of inflation (and inflation expectations) becoming entrenched.

The BoC’s aggressive rate-hike cycle has led to the start of a correction in the housing market, but the long-sought-after inflation peak remains elusive. The BoC has the daunting challenge of trying to guide the economy to a soft landing – if interest rates rise more than the economy can handle, the result will be a recession. The BoC, like the Fed, appears to prefer a recession over entrenched inflation, which is why we can expect the BoC’s aggressive rate moves to continue.

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USD/CAD Technical

  • There is resistance at 1.2942 and 1.2994
  • USD/CAD has support at 1.2844 and 1.2792

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Market Analyst at OANDA
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in several major online financial publications including Investing.com, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Based in Israel, Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.
Kenny Fisher

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