Oil retreats, gold stuck in range

Are we seeing a recession being priced into oil markets?

Is oil prices getting whacked the clearest sign yet of recession fears spreading across financial markets? With equity markets, it’s been a death by a thousand cuts, as inflation panic has morphed into tightening and growth fears and finally the reality of a recession. Oil market dynamics mean crude has rallied throughout this as demand has been strong and supply insufficient. Is all of that about to change?

There’s been a clear shift over the last week and as far as I’m aware, there hasn’t been a miraculous oil discovery that solves all of the supply issues. But there’s been a far greater acceptance that a recession may be unavoidable if central banks are going to get control of inflation again. WTI is falling rapidly back towards USD 100 where it could see strong support.

Gold the outlier

It seems everything is making moves at the moment, everything except gold that is. The yellow metal is trading around a very familiar level – USD 1,840 – and showing little indication of deviating from here in any significant way. Perhaps Fed Chair Powell can spur it back to life. If not, the USD 1,800-1,870 range remains intact, as it has broadly speaking for the last six weeks.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
Craig Erlam
Craig Erlam

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