Oil prices start reversing the Friday slump
As I outlined above, oil futures have started reversing the Friday price slump as speculative capitulation collides with the reality of tight energy markets in the real world. Brent crude held USD 112.00 overnight, finishing 0.92% higher at USD 114.05 a barrel. It has added another 0.85% to USD 115.15 a barrel in Asian trading today. WTI held USD 108.50 overnight, finishing 0.20% higher at USD 110.05 a barrel. It has jumped 1.20% higher to USD 111.50 a barrel in Asian trading.
Friday’s falls have bought my six-month support lines back into focus. On Brent crude, that is at USD 107.00 a barrel today, just below its 100-day moving average (DMA) at USD 107.95. Ahead of this, it has support at USD 112.00, with resistance at USD 116.00 a barrel. WTI’s six-month support line is at USD 106.25 a barrel, just ahead of its 100-DMA at 105.25. It has interim support at USD 108.50, and resistance at USD 112.50 a barrel.
Of the two, WTI looks the more vulnerable, having fallen further and closed closer to its multi-month support zone. If the US cuts federal fuel taxes this week, or US housing data is very soft, that could be enough to tip the scales lower. It is hard to see either contract moving lower than USD 100.00 a barrel given the state of the physical market. From a technical perspective, I would like to see one of either contract tracing out a couple of daily closes below the longer-term support lines and the 100-DMAs, before reassessing my longer-term bullish outlook.
Gold range continues
It was another wax-on, wax-off day for gold overnight thanks to US markets being closed. It edged 0.11% lower to USD 1839.00 an ounce. In Asia, it has gained slightly by 0.12% to USD 1840.60 an ounce as comatose trading conditions continue.
Despite the noise of the past week, it remains anchored in the middle of its one-month range. The overnight price action shows that the inverse correlation to the US dollar is as strong as ever.
Gold has resistance at USD 1860.00 and USD 1880.00, the latter appearing an insurmountable obstacle for now. Support is at USD 1805.00 and then USD 1780.00 an ounce. Failure of the latter sets in motion a much deeper correction, while I would need to see a couple of daily closes above USD 1900.00 to get excited about the upside.
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