Commodities and Cryptos: Oil a tad lower, Gold pares losses, Bitcoin crash risk

Oil

Crude prices are holding up despite new COVID lockdowns in China and after both a hot inflation report  and abysmal consumer sentiment survey suggests the US consumer is weakening.  Oil was boosted earlier after the Saudis delivered less crude than what was asked for by the Chinese.  The oil market is still very tight and the eventual weaker US consumer won’t really take effect until closer to the end of the year.

Despite a sharply strong dollar, WTI crude is only down a tenth of a percentage point.  Some traders are entering de-risking mode as prospects for the economy continue to dim, but no one really wants to abandon the best trade of the year, which is oil and energy stocks. 

Gold

Gold’s reaction to the inflation report was a rollercoaster ride as traders tried to assess the near-term and long-term shifts with expectations for Fed policy.  The initial shock of a scorching hot inflation report sent gold prices to fresh session lows as traders quickly bumped up Fed rate hike expectations for the September meeting. Then the 5-year and 30-year Treasury yields inverted and growth concerns triggered some safe-haven flows for gold. 

Gold traders knew that a hot inflation report would be troubling and technical selling might remain strong.  King dollar is back and with more rate hikes getting priced in for the Fed, gold could be vulnerable to retest the May lows. 

Gold pared losses after consumer sentiment fell off a cliff, prompting some traders to believe that aggressive tightening calls at the end of year may have been overdone.

Bitcoin

Considering all the selling happening on Wall Street, Bitcoin is doing ok.  A very hot inflation report has sent Treasury yields at the short-end of the curve sharply higher and that killed risk appetite for equities and that dragged crypto lower. 

Bitcoin is below the $30,000 level and further selling could send prices towards the $28,000 level.  The $28,000 level is critical support for Bitcoin and if that breaks over the next few days, that could provide the catalyst for a weekend crypto crash. 

A Bitcoin weekend collapse could see prices plunge towards the $25,500 area, with $22,500 being the most extreme scenario.  Weekend crypto crashes sometimes are followed by a quick recovery, but the current environment and soft interest might make for a slow recovery.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Ed Moya

Ed Moya

Senior Market Analyst, The Americas at OANDA
With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya is a senior market analyst with OANDA, producing up-to-the-minute intermarket analysis, coverage of geopolitical events, central bank policies and market reaction to corporate news. His particular expertise lies across a wide range of asset classes including FX, commodities, fixed income, stocks and cryptocurrencies. Over the course of his career, Ed has worked with some of the leading forex brokerages, research teams and news departments on Wall Street including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Most recently he worked with TradeTheNews.com, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news. Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Yahoo! Finance Live, Fox Business and Sky TV. His views are trusted by the world’s most renowned global newswires including Reuters, Bloomberg and the Associated Press, and he is regularly quoted in leading publications such as MSN, MarketWatch, Forbes, Breitbart, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. Ed holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University.
Ed Moya