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Stocks steady ahead of Fed, bond yields hit key levels, bitcoin struggles

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Fed expected to hike by 0.50%

US stocks are steadying ahead of a pivotal Fed decision that will deliver the largest rate hike since the start of the millennium. ​ Wall Street knows the next few months could be rather challenging given the current forces of inflation and all the uncertainty with energy prices and supply chain issues. ​ Despite all the risks to economic growth, investors are still mostly optimistic that stocks will finish much higher by the end of the year. ​ Market volatility is expected to remain elevated over the next few Fed meetings and that could mean stocks could soften by another 5% before traders aggressively buy the dip.

The Fed is widely expected to raise rates by a half-point and announce the balance-sheet runoff tomorrow. The Fed knows the first few rate hikes won’t restrain growth that much but their messaging on tightening going forward and the size of the balance sheet runoff start could rattle markets. The S&P 500 index has major support at the 4,050 level heading into the Fed meeting.

Fixed income traders have watched many massive technical levels reached, with the 10-year Treasury yield testing 3.00%, the German bund yield tentatively tested 1.00%, and as Gilts tested 2.00%. ​ Aggressive central bank tightening has been keeping the bond market selloff going, but prices should now consolidate until the Fed meeting.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is in wait-and-see mode for the Fed policy decision, which could show Wall Street has priced in peak Fed hawkishness. ​ Bitcoin is struggling to muster up a rally as investors remain cautious about buying risky assets. Bitcoin needs a fresh catalyst as sentiment on Wall Street remains fairly downbeat. ​

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Ed Moya

Ed Moya

Contributing Author at OANDA
With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya was a Senior Market Analyst with OANDA for the Americas from November 2018 to November 2023. His particular expertise lies across a wide range of asset classes including FX, commodities, fixed income, stocks and cryptocurrencies. Over the course of his career, Ed has worked with some of the leading forex brokerages, research teams and news departments on Wall Street including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Prior to OANDA he worked with TradeTheNews.com, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news. Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Yahoo! Finance Live, Fox Business, cheddar news, and CoinDesk TV. His views are trusted by the world’s most respected global newswires including Reuters, Bloomberg and the Associated Press, and he is regularly quoted in leading publications such as MSN, MarketWatch, Forbes, Seeking Alpha, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. Ed holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University.
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