The Canadian dollar has been on a nasty slide, falling around 2% since Thursday. There are no Canadian releases until GDP on Friday, which means that US releases during the week will have a significant impact on the movement of USD/CAD.
Macklem says 0.50% hike on the table
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem can usually be counted on for using clear and understandable language, which I’m always grateful for, as I vividly recall trying to decipher Alan Greenspan’s Fedspeak years ago. Unlike Greenspan, Macklem wants the markets to actually understand what he’s saying. The BoC delivered a 0.50% hike earlier this month, the largest increase in over 20 years. Macklem remains in hawkish mode and said on Monday that additional 0.50% increases were being considered. The markets expect the BoC to tighten at a fast pace – a 0.50% has been priced in for the June meeting, with a slight possibility of a massive 0.75% hike.
The primary driver for the BoC’s aggressive stance is, of, course, the surge in inflation. The BoC is committed to wrestling inflation down from its highest level in 30 years, with the challenge of raising rates enough to curb inflation without bringing the economy to a screeching halt. The BoC is also keeping an eye on what’s happening down south with the Federal Reserve. With the US also grappling with soaring inflation, the Fed may deliver 0.50% hikes as well, and this will likely propel the US dollar higher. The BoC doesn’t want to see the Canadian dollar get pummelled and with rates set to go as high as 3% by year’s end, the BoC should be able to keep in sync with the Fed, which will help the Canadian currency keep pace with the US dollar. With the BoC aggressively raising rates and oil prices around the 100-dollar mark, the outlook for the Canadian dollar is positive.
- USD/CAD has support at 1.2632 and 1.2537
- There is resistance at 1.2804 and 1.2899
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