Canadian dollar steadies, job data next

The currency markets are in calm waters today, with one eye on the weekend. The Canadian dollar is no exception, as USD/CAD is unchanged, trading just shy of the 1.26 line.

The Federal Reserve continues to send out hawkish feelers to the markets. On Thursday, Fed member James Bullard weighed in, saying that the Fed is behind in its battle with inflation and needs to increase rates by another 300 points by the end of the year. This would translate into 0.50% hikes at each of the Fed’s six remaining meetings in 2022. Bullard’s stance is more aggressive than the markets, which expect the Fed to raise rates to a range between 2.50% and 2.75% by year’s end.

The Fed minutes indicated that “many” FOMC members are ready to increase rates by 0.50% at upcoming meetings, and we’re seeing this stance in comments from both hawkish and dovish members. Bullard is a hawk, so his comments didn’t move the needle on the US dollar. In contrast, Lael Brainard’s comments about accelerating balance sheet reductions and putting 0.50% hikes on the table sent the dollar higher, since she has been very dovish in her stance.

Canada expected to post strong job numbers

Canada will wrap up the week with the March employment report. The economy added 336 thousand jobs in February, an outstanding performance. The economy is expected to add another 80 thousand jobs, and unemployment is forecast to fall from 5.5% to 5.3%.  If today’s report points to a stronger labor market, it will put further pressure on the BoC to raise rates at next week’s meeting. Investors will also be eyeing the possibility that the BoC may follow the Fed’s lead and consider reducing its balance sheet, which would be bullish for the Canadian dollar.

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USD/CAD Technical

  • USD/CAD is pressing on resistance at 1.2595. Above, there is resistance at 1.2676
  • There is support at 1.2513 and 1.2432

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Market Analyst at OANDA
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in several major online financial publications including Investing.com, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Based in Israel, Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.
Kenny Fisher

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