Euro stops nasty slide

The euro is flat on Wednesday, putting the brakes on a nasty four-day slide. EUR/USD dipped below the 1.09 line in the Asian session before recovering.

ECB’s Panetta warns about stagflation

Inflation has been skyrocketing in the US and UK, giving the Fed and BoE plenty of sleepless nights. I’m not sure if ECB President Lagarde is overly distraught about inflation, as she has repeatedly dismissed inflationary pressures as being transient. Just to refresh the readers’ memories, Fed Chair Powell sang the transient tune for months before famously “retiring” this stance as inflation kept on steaming ahead. Lagarde has insisted that the ECB will not tighten its policy, even though it will be out of sync with the Federal Reserve, which has embarked on a rate-tightening cycle.

ECB member Fabio Panetta weighed into the discussion over tightening on Tuesday. Panetta warned against raising rates, saying that eurozone growth could contract this year, and higher rates to combat inflation could damage the economy. With eurozone inflation at a record-high 7.5%, there have been calls from some ECB members to raise rates in order to curb inflation, but Panetta’s argument touched on the concern that with a very real risk of stagflation, raising rates could do more harm than good.

Fed President Lael Brainard made some hawkish comments on Tuesday, which sent US yields higher and extended the euro’s downswing. Brainard said that the Fed could start lowering its balance sheet, known as quantitative tightening, as early as April. Brainard also said that the Fed was prepared to take “strong action” to combat high inflation. Brainard’s comments were noteworthy in that Brainard is considered one of the most dovish FOMC members. The Fed is clearly in hawkish mode, and Esther George, another Fed president, said that 50-basis point hikes would be an option that the Fed would “have to consider”.

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EUR/USD Technical

  • EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.0936. Above, there is resistance at 1.1060
  • There are support levels at 1.0820 and 1.0696

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Market Analyst at OANDA
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in several major online financial publications including Investing.com, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Based in Israel, Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.
Kenny Fisher

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