Oil tumbles, gold pares losses

Oil

Crude prices pared losses after a pivotal round of Russia-Ukraine peace talks did not lead to a ceasefire. Initially, oil had a precipitous fall after Moscow said they would reduce military presence near Kyiv. Energy traders are quickly abandoning USD 200 oil calls as inventories are not declining as fast.

The oil market will remain tight for quite a while as US production won’t ramp up quickly, especially after the Biden administration will resist selling offshore drilling rights in the Gulf of Mexico through at least October 2023. Russian output is expected to decline given the sanction pressure from the West.

WTI crude might be poised to trade around the USD 100 level, but if Russia-Ukraine talks take a turn for the worse, oil could return back to last week’s highs.

Gold slides on Ukraine hopes

Gold prices plunged after Russia-Ukraine peace talks yielded some progress.  For a moment, it looked like the biggest geopolitical risk could be poised for a major de-escalation and the safe-haven trade was quickly abandoned.  Gold will hold the USD 1900 level until it is confirmed that Russia is pulling troops.  Peace talks are headed in the right direction, but it is still too early to be overly optimistic that a major de-escalation is around the corner.

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Ed Moya

Ed Moya

Senior Market Analyst, The Americas at OANDA
With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya is a senior market analyst with OANDA, producing up-to-the-minute intermarket analysis, coverage of geopolitical events, central bank policies and market reaction to corporate news. His particular expertise lies across a wide range of asset classes including FX, commodities, fixed income, stocks and cryptocurrencies. Over the course of his career, Ed has worked with some of the leading forex brokerages, research teams and news departments on Wall Street including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Most recently he worked with TradeTheNews.com, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news. Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Yahoo! Finance Live, Fox Business and Sky TV. His views are trusted by the world’s most renowned global newswires including Reuters, Bloomberg and the Associated Press, and he is regularly quoted in leading publications such as MSN, MarketWatch, Forbes, Breitbart, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. Ed holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University.
Ed Moya