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Japanese yen steadies

March has been a sea of red for the Japanese yen, as USD/JPY has soared 5.04% this month. The currency is steady on Wednesday, after breaking above the 121 line earlier in the day.

Rate differential weighing on yen

The yen took a double-punch in the ribs on Tuesday, as USD/JPY jumped 1.14%. Central bankers drove the gains, as Fed Chair Powell sounded hawkish while BOJ Governor Kuroda was dovish. Powell said that inflation was putting the recovery at risk and the Fed was prepared to do whatever was needed, including implementing 1/2 point rate hikes at policy meetings. The Fed has been widely criticized for being too slow in its response to rising inflation, as Powell was preaching that inflation was transitory even as CPI rose month after month. The Fed seems determined to make amends, and Powell’s strident comments were meant to convey a message to the markets that the Fed means business in its determination to contain inflation.

Meanwhile, BoJ Governor Kuroda was preaching the exact opposite message to parliament. Kuroda stated that it was premature for the Bank to debate exiting its loose policy and that it would continue to purchase ETFs as needed. Kuroda said that the Bank needed to “patiently maintain our powerful monetary easing” in the face of rising inflation.

The comments from Powell and Kuroda widened the US/Japan rate differential and sent the yen tumbling lower. US Treasury yields have been rising and the 10-year yield is currently at 2.36%.

With the yen being extremely sensitive to the rate differential, a further upswing in US yields will spell more trouble for the yen, which could climb to 123.00 or even 125.00.

Earlier in the day, Japan released BoJ Core CPI, the central bank’s preferred inflation gauge. The January reading of 1.0% YoY was the highest gain since March 2016. Inflationary pressures are nowhere near as strong as we’re seeing in the UK or the US, but after decades of deflation, the BoJ may have to adjust its monetary policy to a new era of inflation moving upwards.

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USD/JPY Technical

 

 

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher [4]

Market Analyst at OANDA [5]
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in several major online financial publications including Investing.com, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Based in Israel, Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.
Kenny Fisher

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