Commodities and Cryptos: Oil remains volatile, Gold tumbles, Bitcoin below $40k

Oil

Crude prices tentatively turned negative after Russian President Putin saw “certain positive shifts” in talks with Ukraine. Oil will remain a volatile trade as the headlines regarding the war in Ukraine and Iran nuclear talks will keep traders on edge.  Optimism for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire is driving crude prices lower but that might not continue much until Russian ease up on their attack in Western Ukraine.

Energy traders went into this week thinking Iran had a small chance there for a breakthrough with nuclear deal talks and now those negotiations have been paused.  After a wild week for oil prices, Moscow has continued with their airstrike attacks and some analysts are nervous they could be making another attempt for Kyiv and Iran nuclear talks haven’t crumbled but are on hold. Oil prices are still looking heavy as crude demand destruction appears like it could get much worse as inflationary pressures intensify the longer the war in Ukraine lasts. The supply side for oil will keep this market tight for a while and WTI crude should see massive support at the $100 level.

WTI crude appears poised to finish the week on a positive note as the oil market doesn’t seem like it will see any immediate relief with supplies.

Gold

Gold tumbled as risk appetite roared back after Russian President Putin noted there are certain positive shifts in talks with Ukraine.  Gold was below the $2000 level before President Putin gave investors hope that ceasefire talks were heading in the right direction, so bearish momentum easily sent prices towards the $1960 level.

Growth concerns however will not be going away anytime soon, and gold’s pullback here should be limited.  Gold might take some time to recapture the $2000 level, but the bull case remains given inflationary pressures will continue to drive growth concerns and an immediate de-escalation in the war in Ukraine still seems unlikely.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin tumbled after the UK financial regulator ordered Bitcoin ATMs to be shut down. In the UK, 33 crypto firms are fully registered with the FCA, but none of the ATM operators were.  This is a minor setback for mainstream acceptance, but won’t cripple the long-term bull case for Bitcoin.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Ed Moya

Ed Moya

Senior Market Analyst, The Americas at OANDA
With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya is a senior market analyst with OANDA, producing up-to-the-minute intermarket analysis, coverage of geopolitical events, central bank policies and market reaction to corporate news. His particular expertise lies across a wide range of asset classes including FX, commodities, fixed income, stocks and cryptocurrencies. Over the course of his career, Ed has worked with some of the leading forex brokerages, research teams and news departments on Wall Street including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Most recently he worked with TradeTheNews.com, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news. Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Yahoo! Finance Live, Fox Business and Sky TV. His views are trusted by the world’s most renowned global newswires including Reuters, Bloomberg and the Associated Press, and he is regularly quoted in leading publications such as MSN, MarketWatch, Forbes, Breitbart, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. Ed holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University.
Ed Moya