Asian equities are cautiously higher

Asian markets eye Ukraine-Russia talks

Overnight, news that a second Ukraine-Russia meeting in sunny Belarus sparked a relief rally in equities markets, which was given more momentum as Jerome Powell signally the Fed would only hike 0.25% this month, instead of 0.50%. As I said previously, peak-Ukraine FOMO is strong in equity markets right now, and the outcome of today’s meeting will dictate entirely whether this is yet another sucker’s rally. I am in the latter camp but hope that I am completely wrong.

 

Overnight, European equities surged, and that continued into New York. The S&P 500 leapt 1.86% higher, the Nasdaq rallied by 1.62%, and the Dow Jones rose an impressive 1.78%. Futures rallied initially in Asia, but comments from Treasury Secretary Yellen about “addressing potential gaps in Russia sanctions” has quickly sent futures on all three indexes back to unchanged.

 

Asian markets are mostly higher, in line with price action overnight, but more cautiously so. Having been bitten on Ukraine FOMO rallies already in the past week, local investors are wary of being caught out again. Secondly, oil prices have jumped higher in Asia once again today, adding another note of caution.

 

The Nikkei 225 has risen by 0.90%, with the South Korean Kospi rallying 1.55% after another trance of strong economic data. In China, caution pervades mainland markets, the Shanghai Composite up just 0.10%, while the CSI 300 is 0.30% lower. Hong Kong has eked out a modest 0.25% gain.

 

Singapore is 0.50% higher, while Taipei has added 0.35%, with Bangkok climbing 0.55% and Kuala Lumpur rising 0.70%. Manila is 0.15% in the green, while Jakarta’s market is closed once again this week for a national holiday. Australian markets are also rallying, without displaying the animal spirits of the retail armies of Tokyo and Seoul. The ASX 200 is 0.65% higher, while the All Ordinaries has gained 0.75%.

 

As I have stated, Asian is once burnt and twice bitten and looking at oil prices today, I don’t blame them. Similarly, European markets are unlikely to continue the rebound of yesterday and will likely open slightly higher only. Any sign of progress at the Ukraine-Russia meeting will spark a bigger relief rally, but an inconclusive meeting will see yet another scramble for the exit doors.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Jeffrey Halley

Jeffrey Halley

Senior Market Analyst, Asia Pacific
With more than 30 years of FX experience – from spot/margin trading and NDFs through to currency options and futures – Jeffrey Halley is OANDA’s senior market analyst for Asia Pacific, responsible for providing timely and relevant macro analysis covering a wide range of asset classes. He has previously worked with leading institutions such as Saxo Capital Markets, DynexCorp Currency Portfolio Management, IG, IFX, Fimat Internationale Banque, HSBC and Barclays. A highly sought-after analyst, Jeffrey has appeared on a wide range of global news channels including Bloomberg, BBC, Reuters, CNBC, MSN, Sky TV, Channel News Asia as well as in leading print publications including the New York Times and The Wall Street Journal, among others. He was born in New Zealand and holds an MBA from the Cass Business School.
Jeffrey Halley
Jeffrey Halley

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