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Commodities and Cryptos: Crude declines, Gold weakens, Bitcoin follows risk rally

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Oil

Crude prices continue to drop as energy traders realize that War in Ukraine probably won’t lead to any disruptions of Russian crude to Europe.  Despite the potential for talks between Moscow and Ukraine officials, the situation in Ukraine continues to escalate as Russian forces make a move for Ukraine’s capital.  Taking over Kiev would be followed by a strong reaction from Western leaders, which should suggest all sanctions remain on the table, including Russia crude oil and gas.

WTI crude has found tentative support at the $90 a barrel and that could hold given how tight the oil market remains.  Next week, OPEC+ is expected to stick to a gradual output increase strategy of 400,000 bpd in April, which when you factor in they probably won’t hit their quota, oil prices should remain supported.

Gold

Gold prices are back below the $1900 level as risk appetite continues to stage a comeback despite a tremendous amount of uncertainty with the War in Ukraine. This week was quite the rollercoaster ride for gold prices and while it appears poised to finish the week slightly lower, the need for safe-havens still remains.  Inflation will be a big focal point and the global turmoil that stems from geopolitical tensions should provide added motivation for some investors to hold gold.  Gold should have strong support from the $1875 level.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is holding up nicely given the midweek plunge that stemmed from panic-selling as risk aversion ran wild following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  Bitcoin is having a nice rebound, but it might struggle to break above the $40,000 level until crypto investors have a better understanding as to how aggressive the Fed will be with tightening policy.  Bitcoin appears poised to continue to consolidate between the $34,000 and $45,000 level over the short-term.

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Ed Moya

Ed Moya

Contributing Author at OANDA
With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya was a Senior Market Analyst with OANDA for the Americas from November 2018 to November 2023. His particular expertise lies across a wide range of asset classes including FX, commodities, fixed income, stocks and cryptocurrencies. Over the course of his career, Ed has worked with some of the leading forex brokerages, research teams and news departments on Wall Street including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Prior to OANDA he worked with TradeTheNews.com, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news. Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Yahoo! Finance Live, Fox Business, cheddar news, and CoinDesk TV. His views are trusted by the world’s most respected global newswires including Reuters, Bloomberg and the Associated Press, and he is regularly quoted in leading publications such as MSN, MarketWatch, Forbes, Seeking Alpha, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. Ed holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University.
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