Fed and BOC Day: Fed sets up March Liftoff, Balance Sheet later, BOC holds

Fed Day:

US stocks gave up earlier gains as Treasury yields surged after Fed Chair Powell signaled they will use their tools to make sure inflation does not become entrenched, paving the way for a March liftoff. Earlier, the stock market may have gotten too pessimistic and priced in too much of a slowdown that was going to come from an aggressive Fed tightening cycle. After hearing Fed Chair Powell talk, it became clear the risk of more rate hikes was elevated and the earlier Wall Street rally fizzled.

Fed Decision

The Expected

Coming into the January FOMC policy decision financial markets widely expected the Fed to set up a March liftoff.  Fed Chair Powell’s confirmation hearing earlier this month clearly sent a signal that high inflation needs to be addressed and that the economy no longer needs aggressive stimulus.

The Fed held its key interest rate near zero, also noting that QE will end on schedule in March, which paves the way for them to raise rates in March.   

What Surprised Markets

Wall Street was divided on what the Fed would say about the balance sheet.  The FOMC statement said, “expects that reducing the size of the Fed’s balance sheet will commence after the process of increasing the target range for the federal funds rate has begun.” The Fed is showing it will be flexible with the balance sheet, but eventually they will have to choose between fighting inflation or avoiding a deterioration in financial conditions.

The plan going forward

The Fed is going to try to convince markets that they have a plan that is hawkish enough that will fight inflation but not cripple markets and create a de-risking environment.  The Fed may raise rates at every other meeting, with the balance sheet runoff starting in May or June.  Powell made sure not to make any strong commitments on the course of rate increases or how they will shrink their holdings.  The key takeaway is that both mandates are calling for moving away from accommodation.  The more Powell talked during the Q/A session the more hawkish he sounded.

Equities pared gains after Powell didn’t rule out raising rates at every meeting and that they could move sooner, and perhaps faster on the balance sheet than they did last time.

BOC

The Bank of Canada delivered a hawkish hold as policymakers will wait until the omicron wave passes before raising rates.  This was a live meeting and the Canadian dollar tumbled after the announcement but turned positive given the bank signaled a high likelihood they will move in March and that balance sheet normalization will come shortly after.  Money markets expect the BOC to raise rates to 1.75% over the next 12 months which should make the loonie a favorite currency trade for much of the year.  Adding to the interest in holding the loonie is the overall consensus that oil prices, Canada’s largest export, should remain elevated for much of the year.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Ed Moya

Ed Moya

Senior Market Analyst, The Americas at OANDA
With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya is a senior market analyst with OANDA, producing up-to-the-minute intermarket analysis, coverage of geopolitical events, central bank policies and market reaction to corporate news. His particular expertise lies across a wide range of asset classes including FX, commodities, fixed income, stocks and cryptocurrencies. Over the course of his career, Ed has worked with some of the leading forex brokerages, research teams and news departments on Wall Street including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Most recently he worked with TradeTheNews.com, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news. Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Yahoo! Finance Live, Fox Business and Sky TV. His views are trusted by the world’s most renowned global newswires including Reuters, Bloomberg and the Associated Press, and he is regularly quoted in leading publications such as MSN, MarketWatch, Forbes, Breitbart, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. Ed holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University.
Ed Moya