Australian dollar trading sideways

Tis the week of Christmas, which means eggnog, crackling fireplaces and thin liquidity in the markets. With Australian markets closed on Monday, the Aussie has shown little movement today and this should continue in the North American session.

There are no Australian events on this week’s calendar, so any movement of AUD/USD will come from events abroad. The US has mostly tier-2 releases this week, so events in China may have a magnified impact on the Aussie. There were some positive developments on the weekend in China. The PBOC said it would provide more support for the economy. As well, there were media reports that Evergrande has resumed most its home construction projects. The mammoth company owes more than USD 300 billion in liabilities, and any news concerning Evergrande could have an impact on the Australian dollar, as China is Australia’s largest trading partner.

With a very light calendar, market participants will have some time to focus on the RBA, which has been in the headlines frequently in recent weeks and published the minutes of the December meeting just last week. The minutes were cautiously optimistic. with the bank saying that it did not expect the Omicron variant to derail the economic recovery. Still, the bank noted that Omicron “posed additional uncertainty for the near-term outlook.” Given the disparity between RBA guidance and the markets’ expectations for a rate hike, this language is a signal that the bank has no intention of raising interest rates anytime soon.

The month of December is all about volatility, and the Australian dollar has already delivered on that front, with significant movement. Liquidity will be thin as we head towards the New Year, which could mean further volatility, especially if there are further developments surrounding Omicron, good or bad.


AUD/USD Technical

  • 0.7288 has held in resistance since mid-November. The next resistance line is at 0.7354
  • There is support at 0.7119 and 0.7016

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Market Analyst at OANDA
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in several major online financial publications including, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Based in Israel, Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.
Kenny Fisher

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