Cautiously higher

Equity markets are moving cautiously higher on Tuesday, as investors await the plethora of central bank decisions in the coming days that could shape how we end the year.

Omicron has clearly added a huge cloud of uncertainty over the outlook for the economy in the coming months just as many countries were preparing for tighter monetary policy. Investors have appeared far more relaxed than politicians when it comes to the new variant which makes me a little nervous, as booster efforts are doubled in the run-up to Christmas.

The question this week is whether central banks perceive inflation or omicron to be the greater risk. The consensus view still appears to be that price pressures are driven by temporary factors that will largely correct over time but every month of inaction is a risk. This is why we will at least see some warn of impending action, while others will likely accelerate the process this week. And then there’s the CBRT.

Jobs report highlights the problems facing the BoE

The BoE is one that was widely expected to raise rates this week and today’s jobs report highlights why. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2% in the three months through to October, while wages rose by 4.9% in the same period and companies hired at a record pace last month. Clearly, the impact of the end of the furlough scheme was minimal which would have been the final box ticked for the MPC, had it not been for omicron.

While a rate hike could still happen this week, markets are not positioned for it and instead expect the central bank to hold out until February. With so much uncertainty over omicron, as it spreads rapidly throughout the UK, and whether more restrictions will be imposed, it makes little sense to act now without a clear picture.

Bitcoin is still seeing support around USD 47,000

Bitcoin had a rough start to the week and looks a little flat today as it continues to look for support around USD 47,000. It has seen support around these levels over the last couple of weeks, barring the flash crash 10 days ago, so this could be a key level for the cryptocurrency as it looks to find its groove again. A dovish Fed could excite the crypto crowd but that may be a lot to ask given the levels of inflation we’re seeing.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar:

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
Craig Erlam
Craig Erlam

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