Commodities for Cryptos: Crude pares losses, Gold stumbles, Cryptos rally


Crude prices are lower as the global economic short-term outlook is weighed down by persistent inflationary pressures and as OPEC+ anticipates a much smaller oil market deficit this quarter.  The oil market deficit might only be 300,000 barrels a day this quarter, but the risks of a demand surge remain elevated.

Impressive earnings results from Exxon and Chevron showed the oil giants are overflowing with cash, but are redirecting that towards dividends and buybacks, refraining investments in new wells.  Exxon is betting big on low-emission energy solutions.  Chevron is not ramping up production and their capital budget next year will be 20% below pre-COVID levels.

The oil price rally looks like it is taking a break but the global energy crunch is still very vulnerable to price surges as the supply outlook will barely keep up with the improving reopening of the global economy.  WTI crude has massive support above the $80 level and that should hold as long as no major action stems from COP26 over the weekend.


Gold is tumbling as inflationary pressures send global bond yields in Europe and Asia much higher, outpacing Treasury yields.  The Treasury curve is flattening ahead of November 3rd FOMC policy meeting that will have Fed Chair Powell announce mission accomplished on reaching “substantial further progress” on both inflation and employment mandates.

Gold will start to form a range ahead of Wednesday’s Fed policy decision.  A dovish taper announcement would be the best case scenario for gold prices.  The Fed will likely be more effective than the ECB was in pushing back rate hike expectations.  If inflation continues to run wild, gold prices will eventually see strong inflows as growth concerns trigger safe-haven positioning.


The Shiba Inu infatuation continues to take away attention that should be going towards Ethereum.  Ethereum’s upgrade this week was successful and instead the focus across many social media platforms is whether Shib coin will make it to a dollar.  Retail traders are fixated with the massive burn rates of Shiba Inu and debating how high it can go.

Bitcoin is comfortably back above the $60,000 level as many whales and long-term holders continue to show signs they are not going anywhere.  Bitcoin’s path towards $70,000 is there and it could happen fairly soon if Wall Street continues to believe Bitcoin is a more effective inflation hedge than gold.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Ed Moya

Ed Moya

Senior Market Analyst, The Americas at OANDA
With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya is a senior market analyst with OANDA, producing up-to-the-minute intermarket analysis, coverage of geopolitical events, central bank policies and market reaction to corporate news. His particular expertise lies across a wide range of asset classes including FX, commodities, fixed income, stocks and cryptocurrencies. Over the course of his career, Ed has worked with some of the leading forex brokerages, research teams and news departments on Wall Street including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Most recently he worked with, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news. Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Yahoo! Finance Live, Fox Business and Sky TV. His views are trusted by the world’s most renowned global newswires including Reuters, Bloomberg and the Associated Press, and he is regularly quoted in leading publications such as MSN, MarketWatch, Forbes, Breitbart, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. Ed holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University.
Ed Moya