Oil in wait-and-see mode, gold moves up

Oil consolidates at the highs

Oil markets probed the upside overnight, helped along by another large spike in natural gas prices. However, oil lacked the momentum to maintain those intra-day highs as the US dollar started strengthening. With a lack of new headline drivers to sustain the moves. Brent crude finished 0.28% higher at USD 85.95 and WTI finished 0.50% lower at USD 83.75 a barrel, having traded as high at USD 85.35 intra-day. Asia has adopted a wait-and-see approach this morning, possibly on China nerves, leaving both contracts almost unchanged.

The US API Crude Inventories will be oil’s next volatility point, with a low print likely to lead to more price gains. However, the price action overnight does suggest that short-term upward momentum is waning as the trade gets ultra-crowded and the RSI indicators on both contracts remain overbought. Another 3 million barrel jump in inventories could spur some short-term long covering and see oil’s long-predicted sharp move lower finally occur to wash out some of the weak speculative longs. Once again though, I will reiterate that the overall environment for oil remains very constructive and any sharp sell-off is likely to see an equally sharp recovery. Of the two, WTI looks more vulnerable as it is more heavily traded by specs and Brent crude is more aligned to the international physical market.

The overnight highs at USD 86.70 and USD 85.40 a barrel for Brent and WTI form initial resistance. Trendline support at USD 83.40 and USD 79.70 a barrel should be the limit for any downside correction. Only a daily close below those levels suggests a deeper correction is possible.

Gold’s price action remains constructive

Gold staged another impressive rally overnight and there is no doubt that its price action is becoming more constructive towards further gains. Gold rose 0.85% to USD 1807.80 an ounce before some long-covering saw it fall 0.25% to USD 1803.20 an ounce in Asia. The rally is made more impressive by the fact that the US dollar has continued strengthening against the major currencies overnight. In contrast, US bond yields eased across the curve, and it looks like gold is taking its cues from them for now.

Gold has now recorded a daily close above USD 1800.00, and more importantly, the 100 and 200-day moving averages at USD 1793.50 and USD 1790.25 an ounce. One must respect the price action in these circumstances, especially when it appears not to be driven by fast-money gnomes. Therefore, gold has formed a nice layer of support between USD 1790.00 and USD 1800.00 now followed by USD 1780.00 an ounce. Initial resistance is at USD 1814.00 followed by the formidable zone of daily highs between USD 1832.00 and USD 1835.00 an ounce.

Gold continues to slowly but surely, form what appears to be the second shoulder of a longer-term inverse head and shoulders pattern. In the bigger picture, a rise through USD 1835.00 an ounce, would trigger the multi-month inverse head-and-shoulders technical pattern and swing gold’s outlook back to positive, targeting a move back above USD 2000.00 an ounce.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Jeffrey Halley

Jeffrey Halley

Senior Market Analyst, Asia Pacific
With more than 30 years of FX experience – from spot/margin trading and NDFs through to currency options and futures – Jeffrey Halley is OANDA’s senior market analyst for Asia Pacific, responsible for providing timely and relevant macro analysis covering a wide range of asset classes. He has previously worked with leading institutions such as Saxo Capital Markets, DynexCorp Currency Portfolio Management, IG, IFX, Fimat Internationale Banque, HSBC and Barclays. A highly sought-after analyst, Jeffrey has appeared on a wide range of global news channels including Bloomberg, BBC, Reuters, CNBC, MSN, Sky TV, Channel News Asia as well as in leading print publications including the New York Times and The Wall Street Journal, among others. He was born in New Zealand and holds an MBA from the Cass Business School.
Jeffrey Halley
Jeffrey Halley

Latest posts by Jeffrey Halley (see all)