Commodities and Cryptos: $80 oil, Gold bears still in control, Bitcoin consolidates


WTI crude is knocking on the $80 door and it seems a supply deficiency will shortly allow it to come through.  A weak payrolls report gave oil prices a little boost on the initial weaker dollar move.  The US economic recovery is clearly still feeling the delta variant impact and that might explain some of the softness in crude demand.

The brewing global energy crisis is just getting started and all the major risks still support another major move higher for oil prices.  Russia may deliver more natural gas to the EU and the US may try to coerce OPEC+ into delivering more barrels of crude with threats of tapping SPR, but those won’t stop oil’s super commodity cycle.  Much attention is falling on US output and energy traders need to remember that under a Biden administration, US production will see limited upside.  The Energy Secretary knows that the card to tap reserves needs to be done when the oil price rally gets out of hand.  Until it is clear how  cold this winter will be and how quickly does global travel start to return, no one is taking the threat of tapping SPR seriously.

WTI crude could see massive technical buying as the next major resistance doesn’t show up until the $90 level.


Gold bears are saying, “Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in.”  Gold’s rollercoaster ride started with a weak payrolls report that suggested interest rate hike forecasts may have been too optimistic about last year.  Gold surged to $1,782.40 as the dollar weakened and real yields fell deeper into negative territory.  After digesting the report, gold investors quickly realized that the taper announcement is still happening in November and that pricing pressures are still elevated and that could still dictate higher interest rates next year.

Complicating gold’s outlook has been the fervor over cryptocurrencies.  Gold’s still in for a choppy period, but it may now start consolidating between $1725 and $1800.


Bitcoin is consolidating after a solid week of gains.  The weak employment report should have been bullish for Bitcoin, but exhaustion from this week’s rally settled in.  Bitcoin volatility could remain elevated in the weekend, but if there is a Saturday pump it will be hard for that to last when several exchanges open on Sunday night.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Ed Moya

Ed Moya

Senior Market Analyst, The Americas at OANDA
With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya is a senior market analyst with OANDA, producing up-to-the-minute intermarket analysis, coverage of geopolitical events, central bank policies and market reaction to corporate news. His particular expertise lies across a wide range of asset classes including FX, commodities, fixed income, stocks and cryptocurrencies. Over the course of his career, Ed has worked with some of the leading forex brokerages, research teams and news departments on Wall Street including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Most recently he worked with, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news. Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Yahoo! Finance Live, Fox Business and Sky TV. His views are trusted by the world’s most renowned global newswires including Reuters, Bloomberg and the Associated Press, and he is regularly quoted in leading publications such as MSN, MarketWatch, Forbes, Breitbart, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. Ed holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University.
Ed Moya