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GBP/JPY – Breakout near?

But which way?

A breakout has been a long time coming in the GBPJPY pair, with the consolidation having started many months ago.

With support and resistance now closing in, we may not have to wait much longer. While support has been found until now around 148.50, the lower part of the descending triangle , the 200/233-day SMA band could represent the first major breakthrough that precedes a break of that long-term level.

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Obviously, there’s no guarantee that a breakout will come to the downside, although a descending triangle is arguably a bearish setup.

But even if a break lower doesn’t come, the 200/233-day SMA band may provide sufficient support to hasten the breakout to the upside, through the descending trend line and 55/89-day SMA band.

What’s interesting at the moment is that the pair has run into resistance today around the 200/233-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, which coincides with the 61.8 fib of the recent highs to lows. A rotation lower from here could suggest we’re going to see a decent run at that support level , mentioned earlier.

Either way, we may not have to wait much longer for the breakout to occur. And when it does, given how long it’s taken, it could be a strong signal either way.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam [5]

Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA [6]
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
Craig Erlam
Craig Erlam

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