Stocks rally ahead of the Fed

Stock markets are looking surprisingly bullish ahead of the Federal Reserve decision later today, with Europe posting gains above 1% and the US not far behind.

It seems all of the unease around Evergrande in recent days is abating, with the company’s onshore unit announcing an agreement had been reached on an interest payment due tomorrow. The problem has by no means gone away but one hurdle has been overcome that buys the company a little more time.

What’s more, the PBOC injected 120 billion yuan into the financial system overnight in a bid to calm the markets; a move that’s seemingly done just that. There’s still a long way to go in this saga but the company surged more than 40% in Frankfurt following the events overnight.

The Evergrande story has been a big distraction from what was meant to be the headline act this week, the Fed. The central bank has been front and centre on investors’ minds for weeks as markets prepared for its taper announcement, something that’s left investors rather anxious at times as the data has deteriorated and risks to the outlook have grown.

The day has finally arrived and seemingly those nerves have disappeared. Given the growing list of downside risks in the coming months, investors are expecting the Fed to continue to target a taper this year – probably in November – but wrap it in dovish caveats that give it plenty of outs should those risks become reality.

There is clearly an appetite within the Fed to pare back asset purchases in anticipation of a rate hike in 2023 but it must keep investors on board while doing so or risk a dreaded taper tantrum in the markets.

Ultimately, it may not be the taper itself that determines how investors respond but the dot plot. While the Fed removed the link between tapering and rate hikes, the latter will not be far behind and the dot plot should give us a better idea of when that will be. There may well be more backing for a rate hike next year given the current path of inflation, something that could make investors worried for the yellow metal and could see focus switch back towards USD 1,740 and maybe even USD 1,700.

Bitcoin fighting back

Bitcoin is enjoying a bit of a rebound today but the near-term outlook isn’t looking great. The cryptocurrency broke below USD 44,000 on Tuesday, where it had seen strong support in recent weeks. The move triggered a rapid drop back towards USD 40,000 before it clawed some of those losses back.

Now we’re seeing a test of USD 44,000 from below, a failure of which could be another bearish signal and pile pressure back on yesterday’s low. A move below USD 40,000 could see attention shift back towards USD 36,000 and perhaps even USD 30,000.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar:

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
Craig Erlam
Craig Erlam

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