Tension ahead of US inflation data

Stocks are treading water early on Tuesday as we await key US inflation data ahead of the open on Wall Street.

This isn’t the most exciting week as far as major event risk is concerned but the proximity to the Fed meeting next week combined with a few select US data releases is creating some tension in the markets. We may see a lot more of this fence-sitting behaviour over the next week as traders await more taper clues from the central bank.

Policymakers have appeared keen to stress that a taper this year remains their preference but there has increasingly been a disconnect between what they’re saying and what the data is doing. If we continue to see softness in the data, will the FOMC still persevere with tapering this year or could they be persuaded to hold off?

That’s the question investors are craving an answer to. For now, they’ll have to settle for more data to see if it piles on the pressure or provides a release. Today it’s CPI inflation and its significance has only grown in the absence of Fed speak, with the blackout period now being upon us. An overshoot could cause a wobble in the markets as it will give greater cause for debate on the nature of the inflation data, transitory or something more worrying. The opposite could keep investors on board for now.

Sterling rallies on encouraging UK labour market data

The pound has been given a small boost by the UK employment data on Tuesday. The numbers were largely in line with expectations but with the unemployment rate continuing to fall and the number of payroll employees back at pre-pandemic levels, there’s plenty to be optimistic about.

Of course, we can’t ignore the favourable impact of the furlough scheme on the data. With it coming to a close at the end of this month, the true impact of the pandemic on UK employment will be much better understood, with a rise in unemployment and underemployment inevitable.

Still, the data is encouraging, albeit not so much that it puts any real pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates. The central bank can continue to be patient on that front, at least for now with the end of the year bringing the threat of another surge in Covid cases and possible restrictions.

Bitcoin higher as support pours in once more

Bitcoin is back in positive territory on Tuesday after once again finding strong support around USD 44,000 a day earlier. It was some day for the crypto space after a fake story emerged of Walmart accepting litecoin which naturally triggered a big move higher before the story was found to be false.

Cryptos are an obvious breeding ground for pump and dump schemes as prices experience extreme fluctuations in normal trading conditions. Throw in a fake headline and we have seen what can happen. Especially a headline that appears more legitimate as a result of the actions of other major companies in regards to cryptos in recent months, Tesla and Paypal for example.

From a technical perspective, little has changed on the bitcoin front. A significant break of USD 44,000 could see a sizeable correction follow, one that has been building for a number of weeks.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
Craig Erlam
Craig Erlam

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