OPEC bullish on oil demand, Gold eyes US data

Oil rising as OPEC forecasts stronger demand next year

Oil prices are rising on Monday, with WTI exceeding $70 once more and reaching its highest level in more than a month. This comes despite demand challenges in the coming months as a result of the Delta variant, which OPEC alluded to in its monthly report. Despite this, demand remains strong supported by output disruptions elsewhere.

The group also revised higher expectations for 2022, when it expects output to surpass pre-pandemic levels. Despite near-term risks to the demand outlook, OPEC+ is continuing to increase its output by 400,000 barrels per day each month, in line with what it agreed in July.

The technical picture is looking better for oil prices following a period of consolidation around the $70 level. Momentum has picked up with the recent move, a sign perhaps that the rally has legs and a period above here can be sustained. The summer highs may now even be in sight once more.

Gold has one eye on the Fed meeting

Much of the market already appears to have one eye on the Fed meeting next week and this is particularly true of gold, which has been hovering around $1,800 for much of the last month.

The case has been building for the Fed to take a more patient approach to tapering which has revitalized the yellow metal but we may need to see more evidence before it takes the next step. It once again failed to break $1,833 after the jobs report, further establishing the level as a key barrier of resistance.

Policymakers have seemingly been keen to ensure the data doesn’t distract from the central bank’s intentions to taper this year, understanding the importance of effective communication when approaching major policy shifts. That’s held gold back even as the data has softened. There’s plenty more to come this week but it may trade cautiously still, ahead of next weeks meeting.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
Craig Erlam
Craig Erlam

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