Rebound stalls ahead of Jackson Hole

The week got off to a strong start on Monday but momentum is already waning, with European stocks a little flat and US futures only marginally higher.

Investors were keen to buy dips at the start of the week and capitalise on last week’s sell-off, as China successfully contained the virus outbreak and the FDA gave full approval to the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. Chinese growth fears had weighed on risk appetite in recent weeks but it seems the draconian approach is paying off once more.

This provided some relief yesterday, particularly in commodity markets which soared on the back of the news. While a very positive development, other countries are taking a much less strict approach and cases are surging which will likely weigh on growth into the end of the year.

Vaccine efforts should ensure full lockdowns are a thing of the past for many of these countries but the recovery will no doubt slow, regardless, as some restrictions are imposed and behaviours change.

It will be interesting to see whether the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine getting full FDA approval will significantly boost vaccine rates, with some that were previously sceptical perhaps feeling more comfortable accepting it. It’s become such a polarized issue in many countries now, it will still likely not be enough to convince some people but any gains will aid the fight against the virus.

As far as today is concerned, it’s likely to remain quiet, with the economic calendar looking very thin and lacking any major releases.

Stock markets may get another helping hand from Jerome Powell this week when he appears at the annual Jackson Hole event. Until recently, this looked the perfect platform to lay the groundwork for a September taper announcement but some concerning economic releases and a surge in delta cases in the US may see the Fed adopt a more cautious stance for now.

Any suggestion from Powell that a taper may not happen this year could give these markets another boost, with it having until recently looked almost guaranteed. The more cautious approach is likely to be adopted by many central banks in the coming months.

Bitcoin struggles to gather momentum after breakout

Bitcoin is back below USD 50,000, shortly after the breakout got crypto bulls very excited. Interestingly, the breakout failed to generate renewed momentum which may suggest the rally is running on fumes. That’s no bad thing in the longer run, with there being a lot of optimism out there about cryptos. But it may again suggest a correction is coming.

The key resistance level appears to be USD 51,000 – the 61.8% retracement of the June highs to August lows. A move above here could see momentum shift back in bitcoin’s favour, at which point talk of new highs will be inevitable. As will the hopeful predictions of how high it can reach this time.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
Craig Erlam
Craig Erlam

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