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Oil slumps on growth concerns, gold surges

Oil prices fall as EIA inventories rise

Crude prices remained heavy after the EIA crude oil inventory showed stockpiles unexpectedly rose last week.  The report was mixed as gasoline stockpiles fell more than expected, jet fuel demand roared back to the highest levels since the pandemic began, while diesel demand declined.  US production was unchanged and that should remain the case given the downturn in productivity from Permian wells.

The current short-term demand hits from the delta variant should prove to be temporary and that will likely limit the decline in oil prices.  Crude was heavy earlier in the day following a softer-than-expected ADP employment change reading.

Gold

Gold prices turned negative after hawkish comments from Fed Vice Chair Clarida and a robust ISM Services report that eased earlier concerns over the economy.

It was a data-driven day, as the ISM Services Index report erased traders’ earlier memory of a disappointing ADP report.  The service sector rallied to the highest level since 1997, employment surged, and prices paid rose to the highest level since 2005.  This report supports a taper announcement at Jackson Hole, which makes Friday’s nonfarm payroll the most important economic data point of the month.

Gold was on the verge of breaking above key resistance following a big miss with the ADP report, but Clarida’s comment that a rate hike environment could be here by the end of next year gave Treasury yields a much-needed boost.  The 10-year Treasury yield almost broke below 1.12%, which could have triggered technical selling towards the psychological 1% level.  Gold will likely consolidate just ahead of the USD 1,800 level leading up to the nonfarm payroll report.

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Ed Moya

Ed Moya [4]

Senior Market Analyst, The Americas at OANDA
With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya is a senior market analyst with OANDA, producing up-to-the-minute intermarket analysis, coverage of geopolitical events, central bank policies and market reaction to corporate news. His particular expertise lies across a wide range of asset classes including FX, commodities, fixed income, stocks and cryptocurrencies. Over the course of his career, Ed has worked with some of the leading forex brokerages, research teams and news departments on Wall Street including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Most recently he worked with TradeTheNews.com, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news. Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Yahoo! Finance Live, Fox Business and Sky TV. His views are trusted by the world’s most renowned global newswires including Reuters, Bloomberg and the Associated Press, and he is regularly quoted in leading publications such as MSN, MarketWatch, Forbes, Breitbart, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. Ed holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University.
Ed Moya