The dollar index had another sideways overnight session, finishing unchanged at 92.07, before edging lower to 92.02 in Asia in directionless trading. The dollar index remains mid-point between its breakout at 92.60 and structural support at 91.50, also home to its 100-day moving average. A break of either 91.50 or 92.60 will signal the dollar’s next directional move.
EUR/USD and GBP/USD edged higher overnight, rising to 1.1870 and 1.3930 in Asia, but remain in range-trading mode ahead of Friday’s US employment data. USD/JPY fell 0.25% to 109.00 overnight as US yields continued to soften. With JGB’s also easing today, USD/JPY has climbed back to 109.10, but as a yield differential play, the risks still favour a test of support at 108.50.
New Zealand job data sends kiwi higher
The morning’s main mover has been the New Zealand dollar, which has spiked 0.60% higher to 0.7060 after stellar unemployment data had markets scrambling to price in an RBNZ rate hike this morning. Markets are also pricing in two more hikes before the year-end, and the kiwi is now set to outperform in the weeks ahead, especially against low yielders like the JPY, AUD and CHF. Against the greenback, the kiwi looks set to test resistance at 0.7100, opening up a further rally targeting 0.7300. AUD/NZD looks like it will test the December 2020 lows at 1.0420 sooner rather than later. A weekly close below 1.0420 targets an extended move lower targeting 1.0000.
The Chinese yuan remains in a holding pattern versus the US dollar at 6.4640 today, and I am not expecting any fireworks before Friday evening. The Malaysian ringgit, Thai baht, and Indonesian rupiah remain under delta-variant and political pressure in the regional space. The fourth member of the fragile four, the Indian rupee, rallied once again overnight, supported by international inflows to the equity market and subdued oil importer buying. USD/INR is approaching support at the 100-day moving average (DMA) at 73.865, and if USD/INR falls through it, the cross will target 73.60. Although fragile three doesn’t sound nearly as good, I may have to review its fragile four membership at that stage.
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