Mixed signals from today’s data, ECB slightly dovish, SARB’s hawkishness fades, AMC tumbles, Musk back on bitcoin bandwagon

US stocks are mixed as the latest wave of earnings results and economic data do not inspire much optimism over the economy.  FAANG stocks rallied across the board as the recent surge in Treasury yields came to a screeching halt.  Cyclical stocks are underperforming today given some of the softness in today’s economic data, struggles in fast-tracking Biden’s infrastructure spending bill, higher price realization, and clear expectations that both the Fed and ECB won’t prematurely tighten (economic growth optimism is needed and not extended accommodation).  The tech-heavy Nasdaq is outperforming given the short-term nervousness over the economy, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is slightly down on the day.

Jobless Claims

An unexpected increase in jobless claims did not unnerve investors as seasonal adjustment factors may have played into the big miss.  Many are attributing the soft reading to adjustments in the auto industry and as some states have returned to stricter restrictions.  One bad jobless claims report does not suggest the downward trend is over, but it will put some added pressure over next week’s release.  Initial jobless claims rose by 51,000 to 419,000 in the week ending July 17th, higher than the 350,000-consensus estimate, which was also the biggest miss since February.  Continuing claims edged lower to 3.236 million a miss of the 3.1 million consensus estimate.

This jobless claim report may have some economists lower expectations over a robust July NFP report given this was the survey week for payrolls.

Continuing claims edged lower to 3.236 million a miss of the 3.1 million consensus estimate.

Chicago Fed

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) showed growth is slowing after falling to +0.09 in June from +0.26 in May. The report highlighted that economic growth is moderating as three of the four broad categories of indicators made positive contributions in June and Forty-five of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in June, while 40 made negative contributions.

Existing Home Sales

The housing market still wants to remain a bright spot for the economy.  Existing home sales delivered a solid increase of 5.86 million homes, a miss of the 5.90 million consensus estimate, and an increase of 1.4% from the prior month.  A streak of four consecutive months of declines is over but no one expects the downward trend to ease up over the next several months.

The Conference Board’s Leading Index showed growth is slowing down but still remains fairly upbeat all the way through 2022.

ECB content with tweak to policy

The ECB decision and press conference didn’t unveil anything new nor did it contain any significant dovish pivots given rising COVID-19 cases tied to the delta variant and deteriorating growth outlook over the short-term.  The ECB tweaked their policy outlook following their strategy review, which could suggest more purchases are coming at the September meeting.  The ECB is in wait-and-see mode over pandemic, vaccinations and inflation, so the euro might be stuck in a range until the September 9th policy decision.  ECB President Lagarde has made it clear that “no one wants to tighten prematurely.”

Today’s decision wasn’t unanimous but the dissents were few and at the margin.

SARB

The South African central bank (SARB) decision went as expected, as policymakers kept the benchmark repurchase rate unchanged at 3.5%.  The rand weakened as the MPC forecasts showed inflation expectations are contained, pushing back some of the hawkish expectations that were brewing.

AMC

Drexion’s new budget-stock fund signaled that shares of its largest holding, AMC, will be unloaded.  The ETF that normally holds stocks valued between 2 dollars and 5 dollars a share will need to rebalance AMC out of it due to a massive performance over the past year.   AMC and GameStop are both sharply lower on the day.

Bitcoin

The B-Word Conference was just what was needed to help give bitcoin a little boost.  A growing theme with crypto events is that some of the influencers always seem to make comments or announcements that excite the entire crypto space.

Elon Musk stole the spotlight after he announced he personally holds bitcoin and so does his private rocket company, SpaceX.  Musk also noted progress in bitcoin using renewable energy and signaled Tesla will soon be accepting Bitcoin again.

Bitcoin momentum is building here and prices could easily make a run towards the July high around the USD 36,000 level.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Ed Moya

Ed Moya

Senior Market Analyst, The Americas at OANDA
With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya is a senior market analyst with OANDA, producing up-to-the-minute intermarket analysis, coverage of geopolitical events, central bank policies and market reaction to corporate news. His particular expertise lies across a wide range of asset classes including FX, commodities, fixed income, stocks and cryptocurrencies. Over the course of his career, Ed has worked with some of the leading forex brokerages, research teams and news departments on Wall Street including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Most recently he worked with TradeTheNews.com, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news. Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Yahoo! Finance Live, Fox Business and Sky TV. His views are trusted by the world’s most renowned global newswires including Reuters, Bloomberg and the Associated Press, and he is regularly quoted in leading publications such as MSN, MarketWatch, Forbes, Breitbart, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. Ed holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University.
Ed Moya