Covid jitters weighing on equity markets
Risk aversion is firmly in place as the Delta Covid variant spread is triggering a flight to safety as global economic concerns intensify. Global investors are growing anxious and selling stocks, commodities, and even cryptocurrencies to buy US Treasuries. With coronavirus surging across both advanced and developing nations, the bond market is delivering a one-way trade, lower global bond yields. Equities were ripe for a pullback given Wall Street was in agreement that this is ‘as good as it gets’ for peak earnings, economic growth, monetary stimulus, and shortly fiscal support. It is hard to hold risky assets over the short term now that we have past-peak everything.
US stocks pushed even lower after reports that the US and allies are blaming individuals tied to the Chinese government over the Microsoft Exchange hack. The laundry list of issues between the world’s two largest economies continues to grow and likely suggests we won’t see calm waters anytime soon. US-China tensions saw telecom and cybersecurity issues jumped ahead of both trade tariffs and living up to the phase-one trade deal. Human rights issues, China’s tech crackdown, and handling of Hong Kong are also contributing to US-China tensions. Panic selling of risky assets could happen if a back-and-forth of harsh tones becomes a recurring theme between the US and China.
Bitcoin tumbled as Wall Street grows nervous, as the Delta variant impact to global growth for the rest of the year could lead to a massive stock market correction. Bitcoin is the ultimate risky asset right now and it could see intense selling pressure if Wall Street enters into panic selling mode.
Bitcoin’s fundamentals still remain intact for much higher prices later this year, but the short-term outlook looks dicey. If bitcoin falls below the USD 30,000 level, momentum selling could look for an easy test of the USD 28,900 level. That could be the line in the sand for defending a deeper plunge toward the USD 25,000 which at that point would lead to many sellers eyeing the psychological USD 30,000 level.
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