OPEC+ weekend deal, low yields attract some bullion buyers


Crude prices declined after OPEC+ delivered a very much expected deal.  The oil market wasn’t sure on exactly when OPEC+ would deliver a deal, but they weren’t too worried that they would let this market run excessively tight.  Energy traders were unfazed by the OPEC+ decision to allow UAE and others have higher production quotas from May 2022.  Despite more barrels coming to the market next month, nothing really can derail the short-term belief that prices are heading higher.  The OPEC deal will allow for 400,000 bpd in increased output, a drop in the bucket given the robust demand that occurs despite the delta variant surge. The commodity rally isn’t over just yet, but it will probably take a big break here.  WTI crude’s fundamentals still support another massive move higher, it will just take another month or so to shake off the growing risk aversion theme.

Travel and hotel stocks are getting crushed today as concerns grow that crude demand outlook might have overly priced in a normal summer abroad.  Jet fuel demand will struggle as international travel is not happening anytime soon, especially given how several Americans are struggling to get their passports renewed even with expedited services.  Even domestic travel to Hawaii is losing appeal given the limited availability for car rentals, lack of hospitality workers, and extreme price hikes for lodging and dining.

The oil market is still very tight even despite all the short-term Delta variant drivers and modest easing of oil output cuts, so WTI crude’s tumble will eventually attract buyers, possibly around the USD 65 region.

Gold has room to rise

Normally plummeting Treasury yields is great news for gold, but a broad selloff on Wall Street has some investors scrambling for cash.  If the selloff accelerates on Wall Street, gold should eventually attract safe-haven flows.  The bullish case for gold includes rising US deficits, an intensifying inflation debate, and economic uncertainty for many developing nations.

Gold caught a bid before the open after the EU real yields fell to a fresh record low.  Global bond yields falling deeper into negative territory will lead to a fresh wave of flows into gold.  Gold has massive resistance at the USD 1,835 level, but if that can be breached early this week, technical buying could easily support a rally towards USD 1,850 and potentially the USD 1,880 level.

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Ed Moya

Ed Moya

Senior Market Analyst, The Americas at OANDA
With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya is a senior market analyst with OANDA, producing up-to-the-minute intermarket analysis, coverage of geopolitical events, central bank policies and market reaction to corporate news. His particular expertise lies across a wide range of asset classes including FX, commodities, fixed income, stocks and cryptocurrencies. Over the course of his career, Ed has worked with some of the leading forex brokerages, research teams and news departments on Wall Street including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Most recently he worked with TradeTheNews.com, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news. Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Yahoo! Finance Live, Fox Business and Sky TV. His views are trusted by the world’s most renowned global newswires including Reuters, Bloomberg and the Associated Press, and he is regularly quoted in leading publications such as MSN, MarketWatch, Forbes, Breitbart, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. Ed holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University.
Ed Moya