Euro steady, German consumer confidence next

The euro is showing limited movement on Wednesday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.2236, down 0.13% on the day. There are no eurozone events on the calendar, so we can expect the pair to remain calm during the day.

On Thursday, Germany releases GfK Consumer Climate, an important gauge of consumer confidence. The index has failed to post a gain in over a year, and consumers remain pessimistic about economic conditions, even though the economy is expected to rebound in the coming months, as the vaccine rollout continues and some German states reopen the economy. In April, Consumer Climate fell to -8.8, and the forecast for May stands at -5.3.

The prolonged weakness in consumer confidence is a sharp contrast to business confidence, as companies remain optimistic about economic conditions. German Ifo Business Climate rose to 99.2 in May, its highest level since April 2019.

Investors will be keeping a close eye on upcoming US releases, which could have a significant effect on the direction of EUR/USD. On Thursday, we’ll get a look at Preliminary GDP for the first quarter. The initial estimate came in at 6.4%, and the consensus for the second estimate has been upwardly revised to 6.5%. Durable Goods will be released at the same time. The indicator is expected to slow to 0.7% in April, down from 1.0%.

On the inflation front, Core PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, will be released on Friday. The index is expected to rise to 0.6% in April, up from 0.4%. With the market still nervous about higher inflation, despite Fed assurances, a higher reading than the consensus could stir up investor jitters and boost the US dollar.

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EUR/USD Technical

 

 

  • EUR/USD continues to test resistance at 1.2242. Above, there is resistance at 1.2303
  • On the downside, there is support at 1.2123, followed by 1.2065

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar. www.marketpulse.com/economic-event

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Market Analyst at OANDA
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in several major online financial publications including Investing.com, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Based in Israel, Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.
Kenny Fisher

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