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Oil surges, gold rally fizzles

Oil prices rocket higher

It seems that the speculative longs who were culled last week can’t leave the oil trade alone, with Brent crude and WTI enjoying the second day of explosive rallies. Brent crude 2.60% higher to USD68.40 a barrel. Meanwhile, WTI rocketed 3.40% higher to USD66.05 a barrel. Both remain unchanged in Asia, with importers reluctant to chase markets higher.

A weaker US dollar helped the rally along at the periphery. Still, New York markets seem to have convinced themselves that the threat of Iranian oil returning to global markets isn’t such a concern anymore, and that a recovering global economy will slurp up the extra supplies. Oil markets may also be watching falling Covid-19 cases counts from terrible numbers to lower terrible numbers, making a recovery connection and pushing the buy button.

The whole rally of the past 48 hours is starting to look like the speculative herd-like behaviour sweeping the crypto-space. Unlike cryptos, energy is backed by real fundamentals, but the pace of the recovery looks like hot money looking for a home, and oil may spend the next couple of sessions consolidating these gains.

Brent crude has resistance at USD70.00, followed by USD72.00 a barrel, with support at USD66.50 and USD64.50 a barrel. The latter being a critical chart point that held beautifully last week. WTI has resistance at USD67.50 and USD68.00 a barrel, with support around USD64.00 and USD62.00 a barrel.

Gold may correct lower

Gold’s rally petered out last night, with prices almost unchanged USD1881.00 an ounce. Once again, an attempt at the USD1890.00 an ounce resistance level faded, and this morning, gold retreated 0.30% to USD1875.00 an ounce.

What is concerning for the gold rally is that both US longer-dated yields and the US dollar fell quite noticeably overnight. Both should have been strongly supportive factors for pricing. Looking at the strong rallies in the crypto-space yesterday, I can’t help but wonder if some weekend trading hedges are being reversed, pushing gold lower. There does appear to be some inverse correlation of late; how ironic.

A bitcoin bath aside, gold’s relative strength index (RSI) has moved into overbought territory on Friday and is usually a good indicator a corrective reversal is on the way. As such, gold may continue to unwind some recent gains, but its rally remains intact as long as the 200-day moving average (DMA) at USD1845.00 an ounce remains intact.

In the bigger picture, gold traced out a long-term structural low at USD1680.00 an ounce, and the longer-term uptrend remains in play as long as support at v1800.00 holds. Resistance remains at USD1890.00 an ounce, after which I expect USD1900.00 to give way quite quickly on option and algo buy-stops, rising to USD1920.00 an ounce.

USD1850.00 to USD1890.00 an ounce is likely to cover gold’s price action for the rest of the week.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Jeffrey Halley

Jeffrey Halley [4]

Senior Market Analyst, Asia Pacific
With more than 30 years of FX experience – from spot/margin trading and NDFs through to currency options and futures – Jeffrey Halley is OANDA’s senior market analyst for Asia Pacific, responsible for providing timely and relevant macro analysis covering a wide range of asset classes. He has previously worked with leading institutions such as Saxo Capital Markets, DynexCorp Currency Portfolio Management, IG, IFX, Fimat Internationale Banque, HSBC and Barclays. A highly sought-after analyst, Jeffrey has appeared on a wide range of global news channels including Bloomberg, BBC, Reuters, CNBC, MSN, Sky TV, Channel News Asia as well as in leading print publications including the New York Times and The Wall Street Journal, among others. He was born in New Zealand and holds an MBA from the Cass Business School.
Jeffrey Halley
Jeffrey Halley

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