Commodities and Cryptos: Oil falls, Copper soars, Gold rush, Bitcoin rallies

Oil

A shockingly disappointing jobs report gave the dollar a strong bid that helped crude prices extend losses. Oil prices might still have a positive second consecutive week, but it is nothing to get energy traders excited that oil will break away from its tightening trading range. Oil’s short-term outlook remains very mixed.  India’s COVID situation could be approaching a peak, with one model eyeing 20,000 cases per day by the end of June.

Gold

Gold didn’t want to stay in a bad place where it didn’t participate in the super commodity cycle.  Gold’s best week since last December was starting to see a steady wave of technical buying.  Today’s shockingly weak nonfarm payroll report collapsed Treasury yields and that sent gold prices soaring.  Gold’s best week since December looks like it could be the beginning of a massive move higher.

Gold’s best friend is Fed Chair Powell and other doves that remain committed to the idea that temporary inflation won’t persist.  The Fed’s cap on Treasury yields remains intact and that has given the greenlight for all the gold bugs to return.  Gold’s short-term momentum could make a run towards the $1,857 level, which could be followed by a move towards the $1,925 resistance level.

Copper

Copper surged to an all-time high, finally breaking above the highs set a decade ago.  The global green revolution is providing a difficult environment for miners and that will keep supplies in deficit.  The world’s largest copper trader, Trafigura sees the copper rally continuing to $15,000 a ton.

Bitcoin

Cryptocurrencies got a boost from a disappointing employment report that sent the dollar into freefall.  Post-nonfarm payroll, most cryptos could start to consolidate ahead of Elon Musk’s Saturday Night Light appearance.  Dogecoin, now with a market cap of just under $80 billion, has been settling around $0.60, while Ethereum hovers near record highs above $3,500.  Bitcoin remains trapped in a trading range as investors await to see where the next big endorsement will come from to help drive the next wave of investments.  It is getting harder for Bitcoin as many cryptocurrency traders diversify their crypto holdings.

Post-SNL, some crypto traders could abandon short-term Dogecoin bets once it becomes clear that it is not skyrocketing to the moon or at the heavily eyed $1 level.  The retail-army of traders that have been committed to Doge might remain stubbornly hodlers, so we shouldn’t be surprised if a sell the event reaction does not happen.

Weekend volatility has been elevated for Bitcoin over the past couple of months, but it seems it will take a major new development to break it out of its $47,000 to $60,000 trading range.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Ed Moya

Ed Moya

Senior Market Analyst, The Americas at OANDA
With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya is a senior market analyst with OANDA, producing up-to-the-minute intermarket analysis, coverage of geopolitical events, central bank policies and market reaction to corporate news. His particular expertise lies across a wide range of asset classes including FX, commodities, fixed income, stocks and cryptocurrencies. Over the course of his career, Ed has worked with some of the leading forex brokerages, research teams and news departments on Wall Street including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Most recently he worked with TradeTheNews.com, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news. Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Yahoo! Finance Live, Fox Business and Sky TV. His views are trusted by the world’s most renowned global newswires including Reuters, Bloomberg and the Associated Press, and he is regularly quoted in leading publications such as MSN, MarketWatch, Forbes, Breitbart, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. Ed holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University.
Ed Moya