Crude higher, gold steady despite strong dollar


Crude prices remain elevated as both the supply and demand side fundamentals remain very bullish.  The energy market no longer has oversupply concerns as US production will likely remain stable and as OPEC+ is sticking to its plan to gradually increase output.  The crude demand outlook is getting mixed headlines, but nothing too negative that will change the overall improving theme.  Singapore’s COVID crackdown is only for a few weeks and should be viewed as health experts taking an abundance of caution.  The situation in India remains bleak and pressure continues to grow for PM Modi to capitulate and announce lockdowns.

WTI crude is higher but will have difficulty breaking above the early March high until India, the world’s third-largest oil importer starts to see COVID cases declining.  The path higher for oil is clearly higher, it just needs to see that what is happening in India does not happen anywhere else.

Gold closing in on 1800 level

Gold prices are not breaking despite a stronger dollar that stemmed from investors turning cautious on stocks.  Gold still seems poised to break above the USD1,800 level as the Fed turned their ultra-accommodative stance on monetary policy on cruise control for the next couple of months.  Now that a ceiling has been put in place for Treasury yields, gold could very soon see a wave of bullish momentum.

Bitcoin’s underperformance to the other altcoins is good news for gold.  Since December, December gold was losing some institutional traffic to Bitcoin, but many of those traders will refrain from increasing their crypto exposure and just transition Bitcoin holdings into other coins.

Gold is slowly turning bullish; it just needs to break above some key technical levels before Wall Street will become believers again.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Ed Moya

Ed Moya

Senior Market Analyst, The Americas at OANDA
With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya is a senior market analyst with OANDA, producing up-to-the-minute intermarket analysis, coverage of geopolitical events, central bank policies and market reaction to corporate news. His particular expertise lies across a wide range of asset classes including FX, commodities, fixed income, stocks and cryptocurrencies. Over the course of his career, Ed has worked with some of the leading forex brokerages, research teams and news departments on Wall Street including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Most recently he worked with, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news. Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Yahoo! Finance Live, Fox Business and Sky TV. His views are trusted by the world’s most renowned global newswires including Reuters, Bloomberg and the Associated Press, and he is regularly quoted in leading publications such as MSN, MarketWatch, Forbes, Breitbart, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. Ed holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University.
Ed Moya