China React: Record GDP at 18.3%, Retail Sales impresses, IP disappoints, Gold softens

A wrath of Chinese economic data mostly came in below expectations and that along with heavy global bond yields was enough to drag sentiment down.  China’s CSI 300 index extended its slide following the mixed economic data.  S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures slid slightly but are still near record high territory.  The Chinese yuan was unfazed by the economic data that mostly came in-line with expectations.

China’s domestic outlook is looking good following a better-than-expected retail sales reading.  The March Retail Sales YTD year-over-year reading surged by 33.9%, higher than the 31.7% consensus estimate and 33.8% prior reading.  China’s economy expanded by 0.6% in the first quarter, lower than the 1.4% estimate, and much slower than the upwardly revised 3.2% prior reading.  The headline GDP year-over-year record print of 18.3% was a slight miss of the 18.5% estimate, but still a record when compared to the 15.3% rate seen in 1993.

It appears that the normalization of policy is starting to show some slowness across industrial production and property investment.  The March reading of Industrial Production disappointed with a worse-than-expected decline from 35.1% to 24.5%.

China’s growth will trend lower going forward, but this mixed reading will likely prevent policymakers from tightening too quickly.


Gold prices drifted slightly lower following the mixed Chinese data but still is poised to finish above its recent trading range.  Gold will strictly follow the move in Treasury yields, which means yesterday’s bullish breakout should hold.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Ed Moya

Ed Moya

Senior Market Analyst, The Americas at OANDA
With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya is a senior market analyst with OANDA, producing up-to-the-minute intermarket analysis, coverage of geopolitical events, central bank policies and market reaction to corporate news. His particular expertise lies across a wide range of asset classes including FX, commodities, fixed income, stocks and cryptocurrencies. Over the course of his career, Ed has worked with some of the leading forex brokerages, research teams and news departments on Wall Street including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Most recently he worked with, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news. Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Yahoo! Finance Live, Fox Business and Sky TV. His views are trusted by the world’s most renowned global newswires including Reuters, Bloomberg and the Associated Press, and he is regularly quoted in leading publications such as MSN, MarketWatch, Forbes, Breitbart, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. Ed holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University.
Ed Moya