US dollar falls on US 3-year auction results

US dollar dips overnight but recovers in Asia

The US 3-year bill auction achieved a desirable bid-to-cover ratio overnight, which was enough to turn sentiment away from the US dollar short squeeze temporarily. Equity markets are signalling today that sentiment could be about to pivot as quickly as it started.

The dollar index fell 0.38% to 91.95 overnight, but in Asia it has recouped some of those losses already, rising 0.20% to 92.15. That has seen EUR/USD fall back below 1.1900 to 1.1880, with USD/JPY climbing 0.30% to 108.80, and GBP/USD falling 0.15% to 1.3865. EUR/USD’s critical support lies around 1.1820, its 200-day moving average. Failure of 1.1800 now makes further losses to 1.1600 likely.

AUD/USD and NZD/USD have given back over half of their overnight gains already. AUD/USD falling 0.50% to 0.7680, and NZD/USD falling 0.40% to 0.7145. Critical supports remain at 0.7600 and 0.7100, respectively. Failure telegraphs 200+ point losses for both.

USD/CNY retreated from resistance at 6.5500 overnight, settling at 6.5130 this morning. With official interest intervening in the stock markets yesterday, it seems unlikely Chinese authorities will tolerate a rapid fall in the yuan either. USD/CNY should hold between 6.5000 and 6.5500 over the next 24 hours, giving valuable breathing space to under pressure regional Asian currencies.

The Indonesian rupiah continues to be a concern, with USD/IDR rising to 14,450 today. Further rises by USD/IDR are likely to trigger heavy intervention by Bank Indonesia, with 15,000 likely to be its line in the sand. If USD/IDR rises through 15,000.00, that is likely to signal further weakness elsewhere in Asia.

Over the past year, we have seen a buy-everything spree in everything except the US dollar, so the balance of probabilities suggests that the US dollar has room to rebound and the dollar short squeeze continuing.

Overall, the price action overnight appeared to be corrective, with the US dollar sell-off quickly running out of momentum in Asia. A weak US bond auction will almost certainly trigger more US dollar strength.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Jeffrey Halley

Jeffrey Halley

Senior Market Analyst, Asia Pacific
With more than 30 years of FX experience – from spot/margin trading and NDFs through to currency options and futures – Jeffrey Halley is OANDA’s senior market analyst for Asia Pacific, responsible for providing timely and relevant macro analysis covering a wide range of asset classes. He has previously worked with leading institutions such as Saxo Capital Markets, DynexCorp Currency Portfolio Management, IG, IFX, Fimat Internationale Banque, HSBC and Barclays. A highly sought-after analyst, Jeffrey has appeared on a wide range of global news channels including Bloomberg, BBC, Reuters, CNBC, MSN, Sky TV, Channel News Asia as well as in leading print publications including the New York Times and The Wall Street Journal, among others. He was born in New Zealand and holds an MBA from the Cass Business School.
Jeffrey Halley
Jeffrey Halley

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