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OPEC+ shocker, don’t bet against the Saudis, US shale rejoices, loonie rallies

Crude prices are soaring after OPEC+ stunned energy markets with the incredibly bullish decision to keep output unchanged.  The Saudi decision to extend their voluntary 1 million bpd cut was shocking as it leaves them vulnerable to losing market share next month when the oil market is in deficit by a couple million barrels.

This outcome was not expected and pretty much guarantees a tight market up through the summer.  The bullish oil party is not ending anytime soon, and everyone will need to upgrade their end of year oil forecasts.

No one will ever doubt Saudi Prince Abdulaziz and bearish bets leading up to an OPEC meeting will be limited.  A couple of weeks ago, he urged his oil-producing members to be “extremely cautious” about raising production.  Abdulaziz has earned the respect of the oil market and is very much responsible for a good part of oil’s price recovery over the past year.

The Russians seemed satisfied to wait one more month before raising production.  They have been struggling to ramp up production and knew this decision would just translate into greater oil revenues.

In the US, shale companies are rejoicing over the OPEC+ decision to keep output steady.  US E&P won’t have to stay disciplined now that WTI crude is firmly above the $60 level.

Energy stocks in the S&P 500 are roaring higher by 3.6%, single-handedly keeping the index flat ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s speech.


The Canadian dollar had a delayed reaction but is rallying against all of its major trading partners.  The Canadian economy might not have had the best COVID vaccine led recovery, but firm oil prices will provide much support to oil-exporting country.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Ed Moya

Ed Moya [4]

Senior Market Analyst, The Americas at OANDA
With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya is a senior market analyst with OANDA, producing up-to-the-minute intermarket analysis, coverage of geopolitical events, central bank policies and market reaction to corporate news. His particular expertise lies across a wide range of asset classes including FX, commodities, fixed income, stocks and cryptocurrencies. Over the course of his career, Ed has worked with some of the leading forex brokerages, research teams and news departments on Wall Street including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Most recently he worked with TradeTheNews.com, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news. Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Yahoo! Finance Live, Fox Business and Sky TV. His views are trusted by the world’s most renowned global newswires including Reuters, Bloomberg and the Associated Press, and he is regularly quoted in leading publications such as MSN, MarketWatch, Forbes, Breitbart, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. Ed holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University.
Ed Moya