Oil catches OPEC-itis
Oil prices retreated once again overnight, another divergence from the buy everything playbook that has served the FOMO herd so well these last 12 months. Brent crude fell by 1.85% to USD63.20 a barrel, easing further to USD62.80 a barrel in Asia. WTI fell by 2.20% to USD60.20 a barrel overnight, easing below the USD60.00 mark to USD59.80 a barrel in Asia.
The chief concern weighing on oil markets is the looming OPEC+ meeting on Thursday. Expectations are rising that OPEC+ will ease the production cuts further. That is my opinion as well, although OPEC+ has surprised us before. The clamour among some members to refill their coffers, is likely to be a more powerful force then complaints externally about tight supplies. In the interests of OPEC+ discipline, the Saudi’s are likely to accede.
With the speculative market heavily long, the past three sessions’ falls look corrective ahead of Thursday’s meeting. Falling oil prices being incompatible with a recovery worldview evidenced by sky-high commodity prices and tightening bond yields.
Brent crude has support at USD62.50 and USD62.00 a barrel, with resistance at USD64.50 and USD67.50 a barrel. Failure of USD62.00 could extend losses to USD60.00 a barrel. WTI has support at USD58.75 and USD57.50 a barrel, with resistance at USD61.00 and USD63.80 a barrel. A capitulation by longs pre-OPEC+ could potentially extend to USD55.00, where bargain hunter can and should be out in force.
Gold’s woes continue
Gold’s woes continue, as it finished the overnight session 0.55% lower at USD1725.00 an ounce. Notably, gold staged an intra-day rally that failed at its USD1760.00 an ounce breakout point before falling fiercely. That is yet another very negative technical development in an increasingly bleak picture for gold.
Gold has continued retreating in Asia in the face of broad US dollar strength. It has fallen another 0.60% to USD1714.30 an ounce today. Gold’s failure at its breakout point overnight is a strong signal that longer-term bullish positioning is throwing in the towel. Instead of gold finding bargain hunters on previous dips to USD1800.00, for example, it is now finding sellers on any meaningful rallies. I also note that the SPDR Gold ETF outflows continue to be heavy, pointing to a further eroding of confidence.
Gold has resistance at USD1725.00 and USD1760.00 an ounce, its 50% Fibonacci and breakout point. Its next support is at USD1680.00 an ounce, the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement. Failure clears the way for deeper losses to the USD1600.00 an ounce region.
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