Crude and bitcoin climb, gold vulnerable

Brent surpasses USD 60 on economic optimism

Oil prices are continuing to push higher, buoyed by improving sentiment in the markets and more optimism around the outlook as vaccines and lockdowns pay off. We’re seeing huge improvements in recent weeks and that will make people feel more positive that the light at the end of the tunnel is getting ever closer. It’s been a long winter, after all.

Yellen’s comments about the US being at full employment next year if the administration’s full stimulus package is passed is also cause for optimism, with progress being made on this front with or without Republican backing. There may be some compromises that will bring the final number down but the bulk of the package looks in good shape.

Ultimately, the recovery in oil prices hangs on the sustainability of the recovery and while there have been problems in the rollout of the vaccine for many countries, we are seeing significant progress. Setbacks like those with AstraZeneca and the South African variant shouldn’t pose a significant threat to the reopening in most countries.


Gold nudges higher but remains vulnerable

Gold has been under serious pressure the last week and while it’s seeing some relief the last couple of sessions on the back of a poor US jobs report, it remains very vulnerable below. The yellow metal broke below USD1,800 on Thursday and a run at the late November lows around USD1,765 now looks likely.

The dollar has been firming and the index broke above 91 last week which was a major blow to the yellow metal. While Friday’s report took the wind out of its sails, it’s still finding support around 91 today, as it did at the end of the week, and would send a very bullish signal if it burst higher from here. Again, bad news for gold.

Even a slight move below 91 shouldn’t change the near-term outlook for the dollar and, therefore, gold. Higher yields in the US as the Democrats get their stimulus package over the line should be supportive for the greenback for now.


Bitcoin to the moon!

Bitcoin has smashed its way to new highs and may soon be eyeing USD50,000 as Elon Musk gave further backing to the cryptocurrency. Tesla bought USD1.5 billion of bitcoin in January and plans to start accepting it as payment, a huge move that further brings it into the mainstream both as a form of payment and investment product.

Whether there is someone out there that would actually buy a Tesla with bitcoin now is another thing but this is a big move by the company. Musk has had a lot of fun with cryptocurrencies recently but this is a firm move into the space and carries a lot more weight than an off the cuff tweet.

Some other companies may be tempted to follow but the vast majority will be far too cautious to expose themselves to the volatile world of cryptos. Musk isn’t one to shy away from bold moves though and has now put his money (well, Tesla’s) where his mouth is. And to think, the Super Bowl advert that never was may have been the big crypto story today. Either way, it’s off to the moon we go.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
Craig Erlam
Craig Erlam

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