Commodities and Cryptos: Oil surges, Gold stumbles, and Bitcoin surges above $40k

Oil

Crude prices continue to rally as US COVID cases near their peak and as daily vaccinations start to increase.  Energy traders are looking beyond the short-term risks of virus mutations that could be up to 70% more transmissible.  Brent crude is surging after the EU secured an extra 300 million doses of Pfizer-BioNTech’s COVID vaccine and still reaping benefits from the Saudi surprise massive production cut move that eased resurgent COVID concerns.

WTI crude is expected to have big gains later this year once most of the world is on the other side of COVID and as dollar weakness accelerates, which is why the oil space is ignoring a lot of the short-term coronavirus pain.

Gold

Gold prices tumbled on speculation ETF investors are about to abandon the safe-haven trade since the US political situation will see stability with President-elect Biden and as the US begins to speed up their vaccine rollout.  Gold’s tumble at the European open was unusual for a nonfarm payroll Friday.  Someone big or a hedge fund is abandoning their bet on bullion and that could reverberate further. 

The institutional interest for Bitcoin is starting to really hurt the long-term outlook for gold.  The Bitcoin bubble will pop at some point over the next few months if not sooner, but until then gold is losing the backbone of big-money interest. 

Gold is off the session lows but remains vulnerable following the weaker than expected jobs report that boosted arguments for the Biden administration to be even more aggressive in delivering support to the economy.  Gold has fallen around $90 since Wednesday and many traders are settling up for the week. 

Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s parabolic move higher is still primarily being driven by institutional flows.  Bitcoin volatility will remain elevated and right now the hot streak has everyone eyeing the $50,000 level.  You can easily make the argument for Bitcoin to rally towards $50,000 or tumble back to $30,000.  Retail interest is growing for Bitcoin and the other top altcoins, but the mainstream interest still pales in comparison to the institutional money that is still flowing in.

Bitcoin is all about momentum and this volatility will not ease up anytime soon.    

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Ed Moya

Ed Moya

Senior Market Analyst - The Americas at OANDA
With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya is a market analyst with OANDA, producing up-to-the-minute fundamental analysis of geopolitical events and monetary policies around the world. Over the course of his career, he has worked with some of the world’s leading forex brokerages and research departments including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Most recently he worked with TradeTheNews.com, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news. Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including BNN, CNBC and Bloomberg, and is often quoted in leading publications including the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post. He holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University.
Ed Moya