OPEC+ compromise sends oil higher, Gold shines, Bitcoin rises

Oil rises on OPEC agreement

Crude prices jumped after reports that the Russians and Saudis reached a compromise that appears to have steady production in February.  The Saudis will take one for the team and make a voluntary oil production cut in February.  Both Russia and Kazakhstan were pushing for an output increase and may have gotten a total hike of 75,000 barrels in February and March.  It is all about OPEC+ today, as oil prices ignore some downbeat COVID headlines that include Germany extending lockdown to the end of the month and the FDA advising against some measures of altering the timing and changing the dosage of vaccine shots.

WTI crude tested the USD50 level on expectations that the Saudis and Russians have made a deal on February output and after the US ISM manufacturing report rose to the highest level since 2018.  Factory activity was still healthy in December and that is a good sign for the economy once we get beyond the holiday COVID spike.

Barring any OPEC+ surprises, oil will take its next queue from the dollar’s reaction to the Georgia Senate runoff races.  With dollar bearish bets near the highest levels in a decade, a huge covering of those positions could happen if Republicans keep control of the Senate which should trigger weakness across commodities across the board.

Gold’s longer-term outlook remains bullish, but the Georgia election uncertainty and the fate of the Senate will keep prices in limbo.  The chance of a blue wave is there and that could trigger a huge plummet for the dollar that sends gold skyrocketing towards the USD2000 level.  The likely outcome for Georgia is for the Republicans to win at least one of the races and that could provide some short-term headwinds for gold.

Gold prices gave up most of its early gains after US stocks turned positive following the best ISM manufacturing report in two years.  The virus situation is taking a backseat, but global lockdowns will be the theme in January and that should prevent any significant weakness in gold.  The next 24 hours will be very noisy for gold and investors will likely be buying every major dip.

The reflation trade that will drive gold prices higher might take a while longer to happen if Republicans hold onto the Senate, but that is somewhat expected.

Bitcoin is the new asset class that many institutional investors feel will revolutionize the financial system.  The simple bullish macro argument appears to be firmly in place for Bitcoin, but it is obvious that price action will remain volatile.  Outlandish calls for Bitcoin to rise to USD50,000, USD100,000 or USD200,000 just got its biggest endorsement from JPMorgan’s strategists, a goal for the largest cryptocurrency to potentially reach USD146,000 in the long-term.

Bitcoin is higher today as trading volumes skyrocket to a record high, but there is some caution in the air.  One of the biggest drivers for Bitcoin has been the dollar’s fall and the Georgia election could provide a massive reversal if leveraged and real account money managers need to cover their massive bearish greenback bets.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Ed Moya

Ed Moya

Senior Market Analyst, The Americas at OANDA
With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya is a senior market analyst with OANDA, producing up-to-the-minute intermarket analysis, coverage of geopolitical events, central bank policies and market reaction to corporate news. His particular expertise lies across a wide range of asset classes including FX, commodities, fixed income, stocks and cryptocurrencies. Over the course of his career, Ed has worked with some of the leading forex brokerages, research teams and news departments on Wall Street including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Most recently he worked with TradeTheNews.com, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news. Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Yahoo! Finance Live, Fox Business and Sky TV. His views are trusted by the world’s most renowned global newswires including Reuters, Bloomberg and the Associated Press, and he is regularly quoted in leading publications such as MSN, MarketWatch, Forbes, Breitbart, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. Ed holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University.
Ed Moya