It’s election time, again

Georgia runoff will determine control of Senate

In the chaotic last season of President Trump, the Washington Post released a recording that shows a desperate last attempt to encourage Georgia election officials to find enough votes to flip the state.  The audio will leave a sour taste for many Republicans and concerns will grow that many Trump supporters may not be as motivated to show up for the Georgia Senate runoff races.  Democrats are focusing on the future and will likely pass on moving forward with articles of impeachment.

In what was a surprisingly close vote, Speaker Pelosi was re-elected for a fourth non-consecutive term to head the House of Representatives.  With the smallest majority in decades and as the pandemic disrupted some attendance, Pelosi got 216 votes while Republican leader Kevin McCarthy received 209.  The Democrats are very fearful of the 2022 elections as Republicans seem in a good position to possibly win both houses.

The focus this week is mainly on the Tuesday Georgia Senate runoff races.  Georgia residents appear motivated in deciding who controls the US Senate with a record 3 million early votes, roughly 39% of all registered voters in Georgia.  For the presidential election nearly 5 million votes were cast, with Biden winning 49.5% of the vote against President Trump’s 49.3%.  Since Georgia does not register voters by party, it is unclear how much of the early voting went to the Democrats and Republicans.  The early voting statistics show that Republican congressional districts in north Georgia had a poor turnout, but that was somewhat expected as many Republicans prefer to vote on Election Day.  The Democrats may also be optimistic that black turnout was strong with early voting.

Wall Street is still pricing in Republicans to win at least one of the Georgia Senate runoff races, but confidence should be waning for that outcome.

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Ed Moya

Ed Moya

Senior Market Analyst, The Americas at OANDA
With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya is a senior market analyst with OANDA, producing up-to-the-minute intermarket analysis, coverage of geopolitical events, central bank policies and market reaction to corporate news. His particular expertise lies across a wide range of asset classes including FX, commodities, fixed income, stocks and cryptocurrencies. Over the course of his career, Ed has worked with some of the leading forex brokerages, research teams and news departments on Wall Street including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Most recently he worked with, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news. Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Yahoo! Finance Live, Fox Business and Sky TV. His views are trusted by the world’s most renowned global newswires including Reuters, Bloomberg and the Associated Press, and he is regularly quoted in leading publications such as MSN, MarketWatch, Forbes, Breitbart, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. Ed holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University.
Ed Moya