Jobless claims continue to rise, no surprises from SNB and BOE

US stocks are rallying on COVID relief bill optimism and hopes that a post-Brexit trade deal will be reached by Sunday.  Wall Street is completely focused on stimulus talks and ignored deteriorating US economic data, except for the robust housing market.

US data mixed

US weekly jobless claims continue to head in the wrong direction.  The labor market outlook is bleak as the winter wave of the virus is going to lead to more shutdowns.  Jobless claims climbed by 23,000 to 885,000, a three-month high, much worse than the consensus estimate of 815,000.  Continuing claims remain elevated but improved from 5.75 million to 5.50 million, but that might be mainly due to the expiring of benefits.  The total number of Americans participating in any of the unemployment insurance programs rose 1.6 million to 20.6 million.

The Philly Fed index plummeted from 26.3 to 11.1, the lowest level since May, with all the components showing significant declines.  The current indicators are positive but the loss of momentum in the region is worrisome.

The housing market remains robust after the November reading for housing starts and building permits rose more than expected.  Low-interest rates and a mass exodus from large cities continue to drive demand for the construction of new homes.

BOE remains on the sidelines

The BOE kept interest rates steady, maintained their total asset purchases at 895 billion pounds, and extended the loan program for businesses by six months.  The BOE remains ready to act depending on how Brexit goes and how long the country remains on lockdown.  The British pound was unfazed following the BOE rate decision that delivered no surprises.

SNB holds course on monetary policy

The SNB kept rates on hold and reiterated their willingness to intervene in the FX market.  The last rate decision of the year took a backseat to the US decision to add Switzerland to a watchlist for currency manipulation.  The franc is highly valued and inflation is nowhere to be found, which should mean the SNB is not changing its approach to monetary policy.

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Ed Moya

Ed Moya

Senior Market Analyst - The Americas at OANDA
With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya is a market analyst with OANDA, producing up-to-the-minute fundamental analysis of geopolitical events and monetary policies around the world. Over the course of his career, he has worked with some of the world’s leading forex brokerages and research departments including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Most recently he worked with TradeTheNews.com, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news. Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including BNN, CNBC and Bloomberg, and is often quoted in leading publications including the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post. He holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University.
Ed Moya