Will key job releases weigh on US dollar?

The markets are yet to open in North America, but today’s session could be interesting, ahead of the release of key employment events in both Canada and the United States (13:30 GMT). USD/CAD is trading at 1.2861, down 0.01% on the day.

Analysts brace for weak job numbers

The US dollar continues to struggle against its Canadian cousin, as the latter is poised to post a winning week for the third straight time. USD/CAD declined 2.3% in November and has fallen another 1.1% so far in December. The Canadian dollar is on an impressive roll, but that could change in a hurry later on Friday, with the release of key job numbers on both sides of the border. Economists expect softer numbers for November. Canada Employment Change is expected to slow to a negligible 22.0 thousand, down from 83.6 thousand a month earlier. In the US, all eyes will be on Nonfarm Payrolls, which is also expected to fall sharply to 480 thousand in October, down from 638 thousand beforehand. A weak NFP report would be bad news for both the US and Canada, so we’ll have to wait and see how USD/CAD responds to today’s job numbers, which also include US wage growth and unemployment rates from both countries.

Federal Reserve Chair Powell has been pleading for a fiscal stimulus plan from the federal government for months. He might just get his mega-wish answered in time for Christmas, if the Santas on Capitol Hill can stop their squabbling and come up with a package. There appears to be some progress in this regard, as a bipartisan group of US senators put a package worth USD908 billion on the table earlier in the week. The proposal represents a compromise between the Democrats and Republicans, who until now could not reach any stimulus agreement. Still, it is unclear if the White House and Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell, a Republican, are on board with this latest proposal.

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USD/CAD Technical

  • USD/CAD is putting pressure on support on 1.2832. Below, there is a support line at 1.2797
  • There is resistance at 1.2921, followed by resistance at 1.2975
  • USD/CAD continues to move lower and away from the 20-day MA line

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.
Kenny Fisher

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