Tech drags as vaccine optimism goes viral

Equities mixed after Pfizer announcement

There’s no fading vaccine optimism in Europe, it seems, with the great rotation continuing in favour of those names battered by the pandemic this year. The US is more of a mixed bag with tech being the biggest drag after months of doing the heavy lifting.

It’s been a bit of a choppy day in Europe but broadly speaking, we’re seeing a similar trend to yesterday, albeit not quite to the same degree. The post-pandemic world that at times this year has looked a distant dream is suddenly a little in sight, following the Pfizer/BioNTech announcement yesterday and investors are seeing some value in those companies whose business plans have been decimated this year.

Of course, major hurdles still remain – final approval, production, distribution to name a few – but yesterday was a really promising step and others may join them in the coming weeks that will really get investors excited.

The pandemic-proof stocks have sky-rocketed this year and it’s those that are now set to underperform as the world starts to find its feet again. Zoom was a prime example of one of these yesterday and is off another 7% in early US trade. Earlier this year, the company became a household name overnight – a must-have for businesses and quizzers alike – now it has the tough job of maintaining popularity in a less restrictive world.

It’s going to be a really interesting end to the year. The biggest downside risk remains Covid and how severe this wave is going to be. Lockdowns across Europe, to varying degrees, aim to ease restrictions in early December but as we saw earlier this year, it isn’t always that straightforward. And as everyone can probably see for themselves, compliance is looking a much greater challenge this time around, which may impact the success of it.

While the US election continues to be disputed by the Trump administration, which will remain top of the news agenda, Covid is impossible to ignore, particularly with cases soaring once again and deaths on the rise. With the election itself out of the way, we may see increased restrictions from the states worst hit in an attempt to curb the winter surge.

Covid relief is seemingly not on the way any time soon, with Mitch McConnell citing last week’s jobs reports as evidence that only a smaller package is warranted, something the Democrats are likely to strongly contest. Which means it’s once again down to the Fed to do the heavy lifting.

Central banks are once again being leaned upon, much to the delight of investors, given what stock markets typically achieve during these periods of massive easing. In fact, the end of this year could provide the perfect cocktail of widespread monetary and fiscal easing, combined with one or more vaccines.

UK unemployment jumps but furlough scheme should limit future increases

Unemployment in the UK has reached 4.8% in the three months to September as the original furlough scheme drew to a close and employers were forced to make tough decisions. As it turned out, the scheme was reintroduced as the government announced another national lockdown but that came too late in the day for many but just in time to stop a far greater spike in the rate.

It won’t be enough to stop it altogether but it will certainly be lower than previous estimates. What’s more, with the furlough scheme now running until the end of March, there’s time for more of these vaccine trials to produce positive results that mean we won’t be facing the same cliff-edge in March that we were in October. Perhaps I’m just too hopeful.

On a plus note for the UK, crunch Brexit talks are seemingly going quite well with little noise from either side giving us any major cause for concern. Next year is shaping up to be better than the one many have experienced in 2020 and the best way to start is with a trade deal with your largest trading partner, rather than, well, the alternative.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar. www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Market Analyst - UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a Market Analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and BNN. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
Craig Erlam
Craig Erlam

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