Oil up on vaccine hopes, gold rebounds

Oil buoyed by recent supply and demand developments

Oil prices are continuing to bask in the glory of Pfizer and BioNTech’s early success, with Brent and WTI up more than 1.5% on the day and not far from the post-summer highs. Both contracts were in tricky territory less than two weeks ago after spiralling almost 20% as Europe went back into lockdown.

Since then, the soothing words of Alexander Novak and yesterday’s vaccine news have seen crude prices bounce back strongly and for the first time in a while, there may be a bullish case building. That said, surging Covid cases poses a major near-term risk for global growth which may necessitate OPEC+ pushing back planned production increases slightly if they want to sustain these levels. Throw in some more positive results from AstraZeneca/Oxford, Moderna and GSK/Sanofi, and OPEC+ may decide to push ahead as planned.

Gold could break three-month lows

Gold is enjoying mild relief today but remains not far from the bottom of its three-month lows. The yellow metal came under considerable pressure yesterday as US yields jumped on the vaccine news, offering hope of an economic recovery next year. That’s pushed gold back to its lows and should that optimism continue in the coming weeks, maybe even backed up by some other positive vaccine data, USD1,850 may be lost.

Beyond that, I still think gold is bullish longer term. We’re back in monetary stimulus season and the Fed and ECB are expected to follow up in December, with governments also being forced into loosening the purse strings further. This could pressure the dollar in 2021 and be another supportive factor for gold.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar. www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Jeffrey Halley

Jeffrey Halley

Senior Market Analyst - Asia Pacific
With more than 30 years of FX experience – from spot/margin trading and NDFs through to currency options and futures – Jeffrey Halley is OANDA’s senior market analyst for Asia Pacific, responsible for providing timely and relevant macro analysis covering a wide range of asset classes. He has previously worked with leading institutions such as Saxo Capital Markets, DynexCorp Currency Portfolio Management, IG, IFX, Fimat Internationale Banque, HSBC and Barclays. A highly sought-after analyst, Jeffrey has appeared on a wide range of global news channels including Bloomberg, BBC, Reuters, CNBC, MSN, Sky TV, Channel News Asia and the New York Times. He was born in New Zealand and holds an MBA from the Cass Business School.
Jeffrey Halley
Jeffrey Halley

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