Election Update: Biden nears 270, UK Stimulus is coming, Oil follows broader risk rally, Gold likely to get boost from central banks

It seems that Wall Street might get unofficial results fairly soon.  The mood in the White House can’t be good, Fox has Biden with 264 electoral votes, while CNN has him 253, with both having him have a key lead in two states.  The contest is not over, and President Trump will not go down without a fight, but financial markets are confident to price in a Biden presidency along with a Republican controlled Senate.  

Asia is poised to a solid open as US election uncertainty could be wrapped before the end of the week.

BOE

Battling both COVID-19 and Brexit uncertainty, the UK is about to get a steady dose of stimulus.  The BOE moved up their meeting to announce an increase to their QE program by 100 billion pounds, but don’t be surprised if it’s raised by 200 pounds.  The BOE also might be getting closer to considering negative rates, which could be telegraphed for early next year.   

Later in the day, UK Chancellor Sunak is expected to confirm furloughed workers will get 80% of wages if their places of work are forced to close.  Sunak will offer clarity to how far furlough support will expand, possibly including Scotland and Wales.  The British pound could see bearish bets increased on growing dovish expectations. 

Oil

Crude prices continue to take a queue from the broader stock market rally and on expectations that a Biden administration will mean lower US production.  The oil market is still working its way to balance and right now it seems WTI crude will remain range bound.  The deteriorating crude demand outlook is forcing OPEC+ to consider deepening production cuts, but a wait-and-see approach won’t provide any strong reasons to become overly bullish.

Gold

Gold traders will continue to rely on fresh stimulus efforts from central banks, especially the Fed, but all the ECB and BOE to help make up for the absence of a big fiscal stimulus package.  The economy will need more support as the virus spread is not slowing and many are expecting it to get a lot worse over the coming months.  With a divided Congress complicating fiscal stimulus efforts, investors can comfortably expect the Fed to signal they will adopt yield curve control and increase asset purchases. Gold won’t quickly recapture the $2000 level without the blue wave, but it should eventually get there.     

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