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Crude dips lower, gold remains directionless

Oil continues to give OPEC+ headaches

Oil markets traded in a narrow range overnight but remain firmly anchored at the bottom of their recent price ranges. Brent crude fell 0.35% to USD39.65 a barrel, and WTI was unchanged at USD37.30 a barrel. OPEC revised its consumption forecasts lower, which negated any positive effect on oil from a slightly lower US Dollar overnight.

The OPEC+ monitoring committee meets on Thursday, and although nervousness over Brent prices must have increased, we do not expect any change to the production cut schedule. OEPC+ will take a wait and hope approach for this month at least.

The price action is ominous, though for both Brent and WTI. Brent crude has closed below its 100-DMA at USD40.25 a barrel, for the second day in a row. It remains unable to rally off its multi-day bottom between USD39.30 and USD39.50 a barrel. A daily close below the latter implies further losses to the USD37.00 area.

WTI’s 100-DMA, today at USD37.45 a barrel, has supported WTI for the past week. However, WTI is consolidating in a narrowing symmetrical triangle, and a close below USD37.00 a barrel implies further losses to USD34.00 a barrel.

Oil markets are now facing the reality of falling demand and abundant supplies once again. Oil is unable to sustain any meaningful rallies in this environment, and overall, all the signs are suggesting that further price falls lie ahead in the next week.

Gold continues to range trade

A risk-on equity market and the accompanying lower US dollar lifted gold prices overnight. Gold rose o.80% to USD1956.00 an ounce and has slightly increased again in Asia to USD1963.00 an ounce. However, that still leaves gold in range-trading mode, albeit near the higher end of that range.

Gold has trendline resistance at USD1970.00 an ounce today, with a daily close above that level suggesting further gains to USD2000.00 an ounce initially is possible. However, initiating new long positions at those levels in this environment could turn out to be a painful trade. Gold has well-denoted support between USD1900.00 and USD1920.00 an ounce, which looks unlikely to be seriously tested again anytime soon.

Gold’s rally overnight is as much a US dollar weakness story as opposed to a gold story. Gold lacks momentum, and as such, will continue to be buffeted by the direction of the US dollar in particular. Patience is a virtue in precious metals markets at the moment, although their longer-term bullish fundamentals remain undiminished.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Jeffrey Halley

Jeffrey Halley [4]

Senior Market Analyst - Asia Pacific
With more than 30 years of FX experience – from spot/margin trading and NDFs through to currency options and futures – Jeffrey Halley is OANDA’s senior market analyst for Asia Pacific, responsible for providing timely and relevant macro analysis covering a wide range of asset classes. He has previously worked with leading institutions such as Saxo Capital Markets, DynexCorp Currency Portfolio Management, IG, IFX, Fimat Internationale Banque, HSBC and Barclays. A highly sought-after analyst, Jeffrey has appeared on a wide range of global news channels including Bloomberg, BBC, Reuters, CNBC, MSN, Sky TV, Channel News Asia and the New York Times. He was born in New Zealand and holds an MBA from the Cass Business School.
Jeffrey Halley
Jeffrey Halley

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