Oil falls nearly 3% as over-supply concerns weigh

Oil prices fell more than 2% on Wednesday as a market surplus forecast by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and demand worries outweighed concern over disruptions to Libya’s crude output.

Brent crude was down $1.39, or 2.2%, at $63.20 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.8%, or $1.64, to settle at $56.74 per barrel.

The head of the IEA, Fatih Birol, said he expects the market to be in surplus by 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first half of this year.

“Oil prices remain heavy on oversupply concerns and after the Saudi Energy Minister Price Abdulaziz did not offer any hints of optimism that the OPEC+ production cuts would be extended beyond March,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA in New York.

“China’s coronavirus will likely see travel restrictions that could end up hurting demand for crude during a peak travel time in China.”

Markets are also focusing on the emergence from China of a new coronavirus just ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays this weekend and the possible impact a pandemic might have on global economic growth.

Should the virus develop dramatically and hit travel and growth, demand for oil could fall by 260,000 bpd, Goldman Sachs said in a note.

“Demand concerns over a potential epidemic will counter concerns around supply disruptions in Libya, Iran and Iraq, driving spot price volatility in coming weeks,” Goldman said, though the “impact on oil fundamentals remains limited so far”.

Oil prices have been marginally supported after Libya’s National Oil Corp on Monday declared force majeure on the loading of oil from two major oilfields after the latest development in a long-running military conflict.

Unless oil facilities return to operation quickly, OPEC member Libya’s crude output will be reduced to about 72,000 bpd from about 1.2 million bpd.

“The Libyan pipeline blockade continued to have a muted impact on sentiment … There is a consensus that the disruption will prove short-lived,” said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM.

Meanwhile, Brazil’s energy minister, Bento Albuquerque, said the country will start talks about joining the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries during a visit to Saudi Arabia in July.

Supply is likely to continue to rise, with U.S. crude production in large shale deposits expected to rise to record highs in February, though the pace of increase is likely to be the lowest in about year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Tuesday.

U.S. crude inventories were likely to have fallen for a second week last week, a Reuters poll showed, but gasoline stocks are expected to have risen for an 11th week in a row.

Weekly U.S. energy reports have been delayed a day in observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday on Monday. The American Petroleum Institute is scheduled to release its report at 4:30 p.m. on Wednesday, followed by official data at 11 a.m. on Thursday.

CNBC

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Ed Moya

Ed Moya

Senior Market Analyst - The Americas at OANDA
With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya is a market analyst with OANDA, producing up-to-the-minute fundamental analysis of geopolitical events and monetary policies around the world. Over the course of his career, he has worked with some of the world’s leading forex brokerages and research departments including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Most recently he worked with TradeTheNews.com, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news. Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including BNN, CNBC and Bloomberg, and is often quoted in leading publications including the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post. He holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University.
Ed Moya